WNBA Betting Preview: Mercury vs Aces Series Odds

The Las Vegas Aces will host their first-round playoff series on Wednesday at home against the Phoenix Mercury. The Aces earned the top seed after knocking off the Chicago Sky in the final week of the regular season while the Mercury earned their way into the postseason with the help of the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx. The Liberty beat the Atlanta Dream twice to end the season and the Lynx lost their final two games to the Seattle Storm and Connecticut Sun. The Mercury vs Aces series odds opened with their first game spread at Vegas -12.5 but have since jumped to Aces -14. Let’s take a deep dive into this matchup and see if we can provide some WNBA betting tips.

Game Information

• Game: Phoenix Mercury (15-21) at Las Vegas Aces (26-10)
• Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena
• Day/Time: Wednesday, 10:00 p.m. ET

The Las Vegas Aces swept the Mercury during the regular season, winning all three games with final scores of 106-88, 86-74, 100-80. All Vegas starters scored in double-figures in each game with the exception of A’ja Wilson who finished with nine points in their second meeting this season.

In each of those three games, the Aces offense was clicking, averaging 58% shooting from the field in the first meeting and over 46% in each of the previous two. The Aces also won the combined rebounding and turnover battle in each of those games.

While Las Vegas has shown that they can certainly cover a big spread against Phoenix, we think the Mercury vs Aces series odds for the first meeting are a little too high. Instead, we would recommend playing the full game over 167.5 or the Aces team total over which is currently set at 91.

Over their last four games, all of which are wins, the Aces have averaged 96 points per game. They also faced the Storm (twice), Sky, and Dream who all rank in the top-5 in defensive rating this season, meaning Vegas should have no problem putting up a number of points over a lesser defensive team.

The Mercury will also be without their two best players, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith, which will be a big blow to their hopes of keeping this game competitive. We could see the Aces being able to easily disrupt Phoenix’s offensive without their All-Star guard Diggins-Smith in the game to run the point. This will lead to turnover and a bunch of easy transition opportunities for the Aces… aka more points!

Overall, the WNBA playoff odds for this game are priced in Las Vegas’ favor and for very valid reasons. Vegas has had the best offense all season long and with added motivation in the postseason, we only expect their offense to look even better in this opening matchup. This should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game that ends in an easy Vegas win and a quick series sweep over the Mercury in Sin City.