Aztecs vs Beavers Preview: Can SDSU’s Defense Step Up?

The San Diego State Aztecs (2-1) failed to cover for the first time last week against UCLA, losing 35-10 as a 12.5-point underdog. The Aztecs hope to put that loss behind them when the College Football schedule shows SDSU moving on to Corvallis, Oregon to take on the Oregon State Beavers (2-0) who have yet to be challenged this season after two wins by a combined score of 97-24.

OSU is a -24.5 point favorite after opening -22.5. The total has been bet up from 47 to 49. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET / 12:30 pm PT on FS1.

Aztecs Defense Needs to Get Better Quick

For bettors, the obvious question is how can an Aztecs defense that has been below average to start the season contend with a Beavers offense led by quarterback DJ Uiagalelei who comes as advertised. Through three games, San Diego State is 112th in the nation on defense, allowing 424.3 yards per game against Ohio, Idaho State, and UCLA. They’ve given up 63 points over the last two weeks, causing concern for bettors bettors against the Beavers.

Stopping the Beavers won’t be the only concern after SDSU quarterback Jalen Mayden who barely completed 51% of his passes against the Bruins while throwing three picks. Mayden has averaged just 5.4 yards per passing attempt. In two NCAAF games where odds were posted, SDSU is 1-1 ATS and 11-13-1 since 2021. In that span, the Aztecs are a respectable 7-5 ATS as an underdog.

Since 2009, the Aztecs are 1-4 ATS when getting 20 or more points. Let’s continue our Aztecs vs Beavers preview by turning our attention to Oregon State.

Game and Total Will Come Down to Turnovers

It’s that early portion of NCAA Football games that has bettors guessing as they try to determine the identity of each College Football team. What makes it more difficult is putting proper emphasis on a win or loss.

The San Diego State Aztecs lead the country in takeaways with eight, but how much weight should be given when SDSU has yet to play a ranked or upper-echelon team? We think you should give a lot because defense is a mindset and their two forced fumbles against UCLA did nothing but strengthen their confidence.

How does that affect our wager? Well, we’ll give you a sneak preview of our pick because it’s relevant to properly handicapping games. We’ve always believed that teams that forced turnovers created short fields, which pushes games over the total.

The problem comes when you’re playing a Beavers team that hasn’t turned the ball over in 2023. We conclude our Aztecs vs Beavers preview by giving you the answer as to how we’re tackling this week’s game.

Get This Wager Early!

As mentioned, early betting on the total has moved the total up two points, which means, go bet on this game now. Over 90% of the early dollars have come in on the over, and it’s wiseguy cash which is why the number has moved up.

The ticket count favors the over as well with 88% of the total bets on the over. It hasn’t started well for bettors with a 3-9 record, but coming into the season, when the over receives 80% or more of the betting tickets the public was 59-47.

Let’s see how that plays out over the course of the season, but for us, we’re going with the public here and playing over 49. We’re counting on a few short fields due to turnovers, but mostly we don’t think the Aztecs are ready to consistently stop the Beavers offense.

That’s it for our Aztecs vs Beavers preview, we hope all your wagers are winners this week.

For college football betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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