Game 4 Rangers vs Capitals Preview: Washington Trying to Stay Alive

New York Eyes First-Round Series Sweep Against Metro Rivals Game 4 in DC

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Game 4 Rangers vs Capitals Preview: Washington trying to stay alive — Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP

New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals
History Against Washington
Special Teams
Stars Shine for New York
Prediction

The New York Rangers can eliminate the Washington Capitals in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference First Round at Capital One Arena on Sunday night.

Vincent Trocheck had one goal and one assist, and Mika Zibanejad had two assists as part of a three-goal onslaught after Washington scored first. Igor Shesterkin made 28 saves, helping New York take a commanding 3-0 advantage in the best-of-7 series.

Defenseman John Carlson scored Washington’s lone goal, and goalie Charlie Lindgren made 19 saves. The Capitals dropped their sixth straight playoff game dating back to 2022.

With New York on the verge of a sweep, here’s a Game 4 Rangers vs Capitals preview.

New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals

Day/Time: Sunday, April 28th, 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Capital One Arena
Streaming: TBS, truTV, MSG, Monumental Sports

History Against Washington

If you’ve been following the playoff NHL scores, you know the first round has been decidedly one-sided. Aside from the Capitals, two other teams, the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning, will need a win in Game 4 to stave off elimination, plus the Dallas Stars are behind 2-0 going to Las Vegas for Game 3 against the Golden Knights.

In more than 200 previous series where a team took a 3-0 edge, only 1.9% of clubs have rallied to win, most recently the 2014 Los Angeles Kings who rebounded from that hole to steal the series. But only 4.3% have even forced a Game 7.

So the Stanley Cup standings and history are both decidedly against the Capitals. Washington is 3-3 all-time in Game 4 when facing a sweep and has lost all six series in five games or fewer.

The Caps most recently faced a sweep in their first-round series against the New York Islanders in the 2020 Toronto bubble. Washington rallied from a 2-0 hole in Game 4, and keyed by Alex Ovechkin’s two goals, took a 3-2 victory to dodge the sweep before ultimately losing 4-0 in Game 4.

Washington was last swept in 2011 by the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Special Teams

Despite their 3-0 series advantage, the Rangers have hardly been dominant, especially when playing at 5-on-5. Washington holds a 125-122 shot-attempt advantage at 5-on-5, and 59-54 shots-on-goal lead, and a 55.6 Expected Goals percentage at 5-on-5.

But the Rangers special teams once again was the difference in Game 3. Aside from New York’s 25% power-play efficiency in the series, Barclay Goodrow scored its second short-handed goal of the series.

The Rangers have scored as many short-handed goals as they have allowed power-play goals (2) in the series. Plus, New York’s short-handed goals have been crucial, since Goodrow’s shorty was the game-winning goal in Game 3, just as K’Andre Miller’s short-handed marker was in Game 2.

It might be time for Washington to start declining penalties.

Plus, the Rangers power play has again been the deciding factor, as it’s been all season. New York had the third-ranked power play during the regular season and has struck in each of the past two games.

New York has as many goals 5-on-4 and 4-on-5 (5) as Washington has total goals in the series.

Washington simply needs to stay out of the box to have a chance to extend the series. Thus far, it has 48 penalty minutes — fifth-most among playoff NHL teams — which is far too many.

Stars Shine for New York

Despite the series’ relative evenness, New York’s stars are also outshining Washington’s. Kreider and Trocheck each have two goals, and Trocheck and Zibanejad share the team lead with five points, plus Artemi Panarin’s lone goal was the game-winner in Game 1.

Contrast that with Washington’s star players, who have been invisible in the series. Despite his four shots on goal in Game 3, Alex Ovechkin is -2 with no goals or points and has just five shots.

Tom Wilson leads Washington in points (3), and Carlson’s goal was his first of the series. Regular-season points leader Dylan Strome has just one goal through three games.

Plus, Shesterkin has been the difference, especially at 5-on-5. Shesterkin has stopped 57 shots at even strength in the series and leads the playoffs with a .933 save percentage. He’s also second at goals-saved above average (3.01) among playoff goalies.

Shesterkin has vastly outplayed Lindgren, who is 15th in save percentage (.864) and 16th in GSAA (-2.35) at all situations among playoff goaltenders. While putting together the Rangers vs Capitals preview for this series, we thought Washington needed Lindgren to outplay Shesterkin to have a chance in this series, and thus far that hasn’t been the case.