Changing of the Guard: A Big Boxing Upset Brewing
Younger Mexican Could Topple the Alvarez vs Munguia Odds
Mexican boxing is in good hands with Canelo Alvarez and Jaime Munguia, who meet on Saturday night for all four super middleweight titles. The Alvarez vs Munguia odds have Canelo favored to win at -650, and rightfully so. However, the unbeaten Munguia can’t be overlooked.
The changing of the guard could be happening with Mexican boxing, and it all goes down at T-Mobile Arena.
Alvarez Passes Charlo Test
Beating Jermell Charlo isn’t easy, but we expect nothing less from the current four-belt champion. Alvarez is one of the greatest boxers of this generation, and although he has two losses on his record, he rarely shies away from tough fights.
The four-division champion knows how to win rounds, and although his knockout power hasn’t been on display in his last three fights, he amasses plenty of punches and that’s what wins him fights.
If he wants to get past challenger Munguia, he will still need to throw plenty of punches and win rounds. Munguia is also a volume puncher, so it should make for an interesting fight in Las Vegas.
He only lost a couple of rounds against Charlo, including a knockdown in Round 7. Charlo is a good form guide for most boxers, which is why Alvarez vs Munguia odds have him favored to win at -650.
However, there could be money with boxing betting sites for the underdog, as many believe Alvarez isn’t as invincible as he once was.
However, unbeaten fighter Christian Mbilli believes Canelo has too much power for the chin of Munguia.
He doesn’t have a very good chin,” Mbilli said about Munguia. “He doesn’t like pressure and I don’t think he can take a punch that well.
“I think Canelo can knock him out if he wants to, but I think Canelo is having trouble stopping any fighter, I looked at his last three fights, he had a lot of problems.”
Value for the Underdog
Talks of Alvarez taking easy fights as he nears retirement have done the rounds, but we think underrating Munguia is a mistake. The 43-0 fighter is only 27 and he comes off a TKO win over John Ryder. That’s an excellent form guide, and boxing odds aren’t giving him enough respect at +425.
His opponents before Ryder weren’t overly impressive, but he passed the first test of his professional career, and the sky is the limit. The Tijuana-born boxer will have to beat his idol, so the nerves could kick in. However, we have been impressed with his progression.
Munguia might not have the star status of Canelo, but he’s a good tough boxer, who hasn’t done anything wrong throughout his career.
David Benavidez, who is expected to fight Alvarez at some point in 2024 with upcoming boxing fights, has advice for Munguia.
“The only thing Munguia has to do is keep his distance. He can’t be on the inside against Canelo because that’s what Canelo thrives at. He loves throwing body shots and will find you. So, he has to keep his distance, punch in combinations, and get away,” he said.
Munguia to Shock the World
The underdog beating Canelo would shock the boxing world, but we’re happy with the Alvarez vs Munguia odds available. We have been impressed with Canelo. But outside the ring, he has distractions including “dodging” Benavidez and beefing with Oscar de la Hoya. These could have an impact on the Mexican champion.
Getting +425 for Munguia is good shopping, and we at least expect him to give bettors a run for their money. He should go the distance with Canelo, which also makes the over 10.5 rounds a worthwhile wager.
Over has been hammered in betting markets at -275, and although the odds are short, we’re including the over in our boxing picks.
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