CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal Odds: USA vs Mexico
USA on Five-Game Unbeaten Run vs. Mexico
Rematch of 2021 Final
The USA and Mexico will play in another edition of CONCACAF’s biggest rivalry on Thursday night. This time, they’re both playing for a place in Sunday’s CONCACAF Nations League Final. In a reversal of recent trends, the USMNT is unbeaten in its last five matches vs. Mexico. With the US hosting the Nations League Finals, this match will be on home soil for the USA. Now, let’s look at the CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal odds for Thursday’s game in Las Vegas and preview the match.
CONCACAF Nations League Semifinals
USA vs Mexico
Date, time:
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Head-to-Head
The USA are unbeaten in their last five matches vs. Mexico. Most recently, the two sides drew 1-1 in an April friendly. The USMNT has won its last three competitive matches vs. Mexico on home soil.
The US defeated Mexico 3-2 in the CONCACAF Nations League final two years ago and in the Gold Cup final a couple of months later. The last time Mexico won in the US was in a 2019 friendly. In the previous ten meetings of this fixture, USA lead the series 4-3, with three draws. Here, the USA vs Mexico odds favor the USMNT.
Potential USA Debut for Balogun
- Standings: 3-1-0, 1st Group D
- Key Injuries: M Tyler Adams
It was a massive coup for the USA when England youth international Folarin Balogun switched allegiances to the USMNT. Balogun, who is under contract at Arsenal, took Ligue 1 by storm in 2022-23 while on loan at Reims.
Balogun scored 21 league goals, and only Kylian Mbappe, Alexandre Lacazette, and Jonathan David scored more. Balogun can make his USA debut on Thursday and has the potential to be a prolific striker in the international game.
This is also USA interim coach B.J. Callaghan’s first match in charge. He was previously an assistant coach for the national team from 2019 to 2023. He’s getting thrown straight into the fire, as this is a crucial match vs. the USA’s biggest rivals.
He’s called up a strong side for the occasion, as the likes of Matt Turner, Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie are all in it. The CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal odds price the USA as favorites.
Although Jesus Ferreira scored a competition-leading four goals in the group stage, he’s not on the roster here. Ricardo Pepi, who scored three goals in two March qualifiers, has earned a call-up. Meanwhile, Celta Vigo midfielder Luca de la Torre, who provided four assists in four matches, is also in the squad. Callaghan has opted for a youthful squad here, as only one outfield player is 30 or above.
Jimenez and Lozano Out for Mexico
- Standings: 2-2-0, 1st Group A
- Key Injuries: F Raul Jimenez, F Hirving Lozano
Mexico drew 2-2 with Cameroon last Saturday in a warm-up friendly. They also picked up a 2-0 win over Guatemala in a friendly a few days prior. Mexico have now scored two goals in five of their last six games after only scoring twice in three matches at the World Cup. In five matches as Mexico head coach, Diego Cocca is also unbeaten, with a 2-3-0 record.
Thursday will present a tough test for El Tri and they’ll have to make do without two of their best players. Striker Raul Jimenez and winger Hirving “Chucky” Lozano are out injured. Jimenez is Mexico’s active leading scorer, with 30 goals in 100 appearances. Lozano ranks second among active players, with 17 goals. This could present an excellent opportunity for Santiago Gimenez. The Feyenoord striker led the Europa League in goals per 90 minutes and has made just 10 appearances for his country thus far.
Legendary El Tri goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is in the squad after putting in virtuoso performances for Salernitana this season. Other players to watch include left back Jesus Gallardo and Ajax midfielder Edson Alvarez. Heading into this match, Mexico have drawn three of their last four games. Still, they’re one of the best teams in CONCACAF.
Match Analysis and Odds
Thursday night’s match is listed as a pick’em with the USA as slight favorites. USA pk comes in at -135 odds, while Mexico show +105 ATS odds. The CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal odds also price the USA as +145 moneyline favorites. Any outcome here is more than possible, as a draw sits at +210 and Mexico are priced at +190 odds to win.
Notably, the USA have kept three shutouts in their last five matches vs. Mexico. In the last five head-to-head matchups, the USA have averaged 1.4 goals per game. Meanwhile, Mexico have averaged just 0.6 goals during that time.
Here, over two goals sit at -145 odds as the USA can trot out attacking options like Flo Balogun, Christian Pulisic, Ricardo Pepi and Brenden Aaronson. Mexico wingers Alexis Vega and Uriel Antuna could be key here as they go at the USA’s full-backs.
Both teams have scored in just two of the last eight meetings. April’s friendly between the two sides did finish 1-1, though. Here, a “No” bet on Both Teams to Score displays -130 odds.
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