Croatia vs Spain: UEFA Nations League Finals Odds

Croatia Go For First Major Trophy

June 16, 2023 296 4 minutes readFIFA World Cup News

Croatia vs. Spain: UEFA Nations League Finals Odds — Photo taken from uefa.com

Both Sides Advance in Dramatic Fashion
UEFA Nations League Final
Head-to-Head
Match Analysis and Odds

Both Sides Advance in Dramatic Fashion

Croatia and Spain have been two of Europe’s most consistent teams over the last decade. They’ll meet in a major final for the first team as they contest the UEFA Nations League final on Sunday. Both teams advanced to the final under dramatic circumstances. Croatia held a 2-1 lead vs. the Netherlands but conceded late, which forced extra time. Croatia scored twice in extra time to book a place in the final. Meanwhile, Spain scored an 88th-minute winner vs. Italy to advance. Now, we’ll preview the UEFA Nations League Finals odds and closely examine what should be an exciting match.

UEFA Nations League Final

Croatia vs Spain

Date, time: Sunday, June 18th, 2:45 p.m. EST
Location: De Kuip, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Head-to-Head

Croatia and Spain last met in the European Championship round of 16 in 2021. Spain took a 3-1 lead, but Croatia pulled off a late comeback to force extra time. Alvaro Morata and Mikel Oyarzabal scored in extra time to give Spain a 5-3 win. In the last five meetings, Spain have won three and Croatia have won two. These teams have never met in Euro qualifiers or World Cup qualifiers, only in major tournaments or international friendlies. Spain have averaged over four goals in the last three head-to-head matchups.

Resilient Croatia Reach Final

Semifinal Result: 4-2 W vs. Netherlands (AET)
Key Injuries: D Josko Gvardiol

With the clock running out on captain Luka Modric’s career, it could be now or never for Croatia. Croatia are just one win away from their first-ever major trophy. The Vatreni fell behind in Wednesday’s semifinal vs. the Netherlands and went into the half down 1-0. Croatia won a penalty 10 minutes into the second half and Andrej Kramaric converted on a panenka. Zlatko Dalic’s side took the lead under 20 minutes later as Mario Pasalic sent in a Luka Ivanusec cross.

It looked like Croatia would win in regulation, and they were the better of the two sides, but Noa Lang equalized for the Oranje in the 96th minute. In extra time, Croatia substitute striker Bruno Petkovic gave them the lead on a low shot from outside the box. Modric later scored a penalty to put the match beyond reach. Croatia have consistently advanced in underdog situations and are often a good pick for betting on soccer games.

They did concede two goals without key defender Josko Gvardiol, and his absence could hurt again on Sunday. Still, Croatia’s midfield often controls matches, and that starts with Modric. His sidekicks Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic are high-level players in their own right. In any case, expect a highly motivated Croatia team on Sunday.

Spain Score Late vs Italy

Semifinal Result: 2-1 W vs. Italy
Key Injuries: M Pedri, F Nico Williams, F Gerard Moreno

Spain dominated possession for long stretches of their semifinal match vs. Italy. La Furia Roja also created many more chances than the Azzurri, but it wasn’t always a comfortable match. Spain took an early lead as Yeremy Pino capitalized on a Leonardo Bonucci mistake. Minutes later, Italy won a penalty as a shot inadvertently struck Spain center back Robin Le Normand’s arm. Ciro Immobile scored the penalty and Italy thought they had a go-ahead goal later in the first half.

However, Davide Frattesi was offside by a hair, and VAR called back the goal. Spain, and Alvaro Morata in particular, had many good opportunities to score but couldn’t finish. Gianluigi Donnarumma made some excellent saves in the Italy goal as well. The breakthrough finally came when substitute striker Joselu got a touch on a deflected Rodri shot in the 88th minute. Spain held on to make a second straight appearance in the UEFA Nations League final.

Two years ago, Spain lost 2-1 to France after taking a 1-0 lead in the 64th minute. Here, the UEFA Nations League Finals odds price Spain as favorites. With Manchester City’s Rodri at the base of Spain’s midfield, they looked solid vs. Italy. Le Normand debuted on Thursday and didn’t look out of place next to Aymeric Laporte in the center of defense. Should Spain win here, it would be their first trophy since 2012.

Match Analysis and Odds

The trend of Croatia as underdogs continues here. They’ve lost just one match in their last five knockout stage matches in major competitions. Three of those have gone into extra time; another draw comes in at +255 odds. The UEFA Nations League Finals odds also price the Croatians as +260 moneyline underdogs in pursuit of their first major trophy. There’s also a possibility that this could be Luka Modric’s last hurrah with Croatia.

One thing is certain: Croatia don’t back down to anyone, and they won’t be afraid of Spain here. Luis de la Fuente does have the opportunity to bring home Spain’s first major trophy for 11 years. His Spanish side are even money ATS and moneyline favorites for Sunday’s match. Meanwhile, Croatia +0.5 shows -130 odds.

It’ll be interesting to see if Zlatko Dalic demands that his Croatia players press Spain high up the pitch. Spain looked a bit shaky when Italy committed defenders forward, but breaking the press creates opportunities of its own. In any case, not many goals are expected in Rotterdam. Under 2.5 goals sit at -125 odds, but both teams’ matches finished with at least three earlier in the week. Overall, Spain are -175 favorites to lift their first Nations League trophy, while punters can take a chance on Croatia at +135.