2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers: Argentina vs Paraguay Odds
Argentina Aiming to Stay Perfect
Messi Back from Injury
Defending World Cup champions Argentina have kicked off their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign with two wins in two matches. Lionel Messi recently missed four matches for Inter Miami but he’s been called up for October qualifiers. First, his Argentina take on Paraguay on Thursday before heading to Peru next Tuesday. Here, Paraguay are going for their first win of qualifying but it certainly won’t be easy. Ahead of Thursday’s match, we’ll take a closer look at the Argentina vs Paraguay odds.
âš½ Argentina vs Paraguay âš½
Date & Time:
Location: Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Head-to-Head:
This has been an incredibly low-scoring and competitive fixture in recent times even though Paraguay hasn’t been one of the FIFA World Cup teams since 2010. In the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, both meetings finished in draws. In the last six matches between Argentina and Paraguay, four have finished in draws and each team has won one.
Excellent 2023 for Argentina
Argentina have played six games so far in 2023 and have won all six. In fact, they haven’t even conceded a goal since last December’s World Cup final. Granted, La Albiceleste hasn’t faced a top team yet this year but their clean-sheet streak is still impressive. Ahead of October’s qualifiers vs. Paraguay and Peru, Lionel Messi returned from a leg injury. Messi is still playing at a high level, even at 36, and scored the winning goal vs. Ecuador last month.
While Messi has returned, Argentina will be missing Lisandro Martinez, Angel di Maria, and Paulo Dybala for October’s matches. Last month, Argentina kicked off their campaign with two solid FIFA World Cup scores in qualifying. They narrowly defeated Ecuador 1-0 in Buenos Aires and comfortably defeated Bolivia 3-0 a few days later.
With six CONMEBOL teams now qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, Argentina has gotten off to a great start. While not having Martinez and Di Maria will hurt, Argentina still have most of their key players available for this pair of matches. For their first October match, the Argentina vs Paraguay odds list the hosts as -370 favorites.
Coaching Change for Paraguay
Paraguay couldn’t manage to win either of their first two FIFA World Cup qualifiers. In their first match, Peru’s Luis Advincula got sent off in the 45th minute. Paraguay got off six shots on target but couldn’t beat Peru keeper Pedro Gallese as the match finished scoreless. In their next match, Paraguay once again outshot their opponents but fell 1-0 to Venezuela.
Given neither of Paraguay’s opponents was the 2022 FIFA World Cup teams, the Football Federation fired coach Guillermo Barros Schelotto. Paraguay hired another Argentine coach, Daniel Garnero, to take over. So, heading into Garnero’s first match La Albirroja is still looking for their first goal of qualifying. In the 2022 CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, Paraguay finished in eighth place, with a 3-7-8 record, and they scored the fewest goals of any team.
Miguel Almiron is Paraguay’s current active top scorer and he’s only found the net seven times for the national team. Plus forwards Julio Enciso and Derlis Gonzalez are both out for this pair of qualifiers. Midfielder Richard Ortiz is also not in the squad.
Match Analysis & Odds
There is certainly a gap in quality between Argentina and Paraguay on paper but the head-to-head results have been quite even recently. It could work in Argentina’s favor that Paraguay’s head coach is making his debut here. La Albiceleste certainly has continuity, as Lionel Scaloni has been at the helm since 2018.
Here, the Argentina vs Paraguay odds price hosts Argentina as -370 favorites. Bettors can also take Paraguay at +1050 odds and a draw at +435. Paraguay has only won one of their last seven matches and has scored just four goals during that time. Note that Argentina haven’t lost any of their last 23 CONMEBOL qualifiers as well.
Argentina -1.5, -2 comes in at +115 odds as each of the last six meetings has finished in draws or only been decided by one goal. So, Paraguay +1.5, +2 is priced at -145 odds. Recent meetings have been quite low scoring but over 2.5 goals show -120 odds here.
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