Japan vs Croatia Odds & Recap

Croatia has gone through to the quarter-finals of the World Cup in Qatar after beating Japan on penalties following a 1-1 draw.

For large parts of the first half, Japan was looking to hit Croatia on the counterattack and was faster in possession than their opponents. They had an early opportunity to take the lead in the 2nd minute when an inch-perfect cross found Shogo Taniguchi, whose header flew narrowly wide of the left post.

In the 40th minute of the match, Daichi Kamada weaved through the Croatia defense with ease and found himself in a great position in front of the goal, but his effort went over the bar in what was one of Japan’s best chances to take the lead.

Japan eventually went ahead in the match when Daizen Maeda pounced on a loose ball inside the 18-yard box to tap his shot past Dominik Livakovic from close range. Meanwhile, Croatia managed to control the ball but rarely offered much of an attacking threat in the opening 45 minutes.

Ivan Perisic had a great chance to give his nation the lead after he ran onto a woeful backpass from Takehiro Tomiyasu. But, having taken his time to pick his spot, his effort was then wonderfully saved by Shuichi Gonda.

Croatia came back fighting in the second half, and unlike the first period of the game, they looked more like an attacking threat. In the 56th minute, they made it count when Perisic guided home a superb header into the bottom right-hand corner to get his nation level in the match.

Gaps began to open for Croatia as Japan tired in the game, with Perisic having a chance to give his side the lead, but a Japanese defender eventually cleared the ball.

The match went to extra time, with the two teams failing to score a winner. However, Japan had the best opportunity in the additional 30 minutes when Kaoru Mitoma beat his marker and unleashed a powerful shot from outside the area, only for his attempt to be saved by Livakovic.

But the match eventually went to penalties, and Japan missed three spot kicks, sending Croatia to the next round of the tournament in Qatar.

📊 Team Stats 📊

Japan	–	Croatia
42%	Possession	58%
13	Total Shots	17
4	Shots on Target	4
5	Shots Wide	6
4	Shots Blocked	7
3	Saves	3
8	Corners	5
0	Yellow Cards	2
0	Red Cards	0
12	Fouls	16
3	Offsides	0
79%	Pass Accuracy	84%
4	Dribbles	2
28	Crosses	35
13	Tackles	14

Did We Get It Right?

Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on December 02, 2022.

Japan Win Group E

World Cup Group E, which was made up of Spain, Germany, Japan and Costa Rica, was often called the “Group of Death”. The two heavyweights in the group were widely expected to go through but Japan had other ideas. With upset wins over Germany and Spain, Japan incredibly won Group E and now take on Croatia in the round of 16. Croatia are still a very tough out and will certainly be happy they avoided facing Spain. Still, they’ll be well aware of the danger that Japan poses. We’ll see who’s favored to win the match as we preview the Japan vs Croatia odds.

Team Stats and Odds:

Japan and Croatia have only met three times previously, with a win for each team and a draw. This will be the third opportunity to bet on the Japan vs Croatia odds at a FIFA World Cup. The last two fixtures between the two sides were at World Cups and the most recent was a scoreless draw in 2006.

When Japan coach Hajime Moriyasu said before the World Cup that he expected Japan to reach the quarterfinals it seemed unlikely they’d actually make it there. The Samurai Blue entered the tournament at just +500 FIFA odds to advance to the knockout stage and +1400 odds to win Group E.

A huge first step in the right direction was pulling off an incredible 2-1 comeback win over Germany. All Japan needed to do to secure knockout stage qualification after that was defeat Costa Rica. Despite the Ticos coming off a 7-0 loss to Spain, Japan bafflingly fell 1-0.

With a match vs. Spain looming, it looked like Japan had shot themselves in the foot. When they fell behind 1-0 after 10 minutes to an Alvaro Morata goal, their outlook was even bleaker. Spain dominated possession and looked like the much better side in the first half. However, lightning struck twice and Japan pulled off another incredible second half comeback.

Substitute Ritsu Doan launched a shot from outside the box that Unai Simon got his hands to but couldn’t keep out. Just six minutes into the half, Japan completed the comeback.

A Kaoru Mitoma cross was sent in by Ao Tanaka. but the ball appeared to be out of bounds before the cross. The goal was initially given, then ruled out, then given again by VAR. A shell shocked Spain couldn’t break down the Japanese defense and the Samurai Blue won as +700 underdogs.

Japan have now reached consecutive knockout stages for the first time ever. Moriyasu’s substitutions have provided huge boosts and Japan are a surprisingly deep squad. If they win, it’ll make their first quarterfinals appearance in team history.

In a match that was supposed to be one of the best group stage matches on the FIFA Calendar 2022, Croatia drew with Belgium 0-0 on Thursday. Croatia somehow hung on for a scoreless draw in a match where Belgium had clear cut scoring opportunities.

Some of the Red Devils’ chances, Romelu Lukaku’s in particular, looked harder to miss than to score. In any case, the draw meant Croatia advanced ahead of the Red Devils in Group F. Croatia finished with a win and two draws, which was good enough for second in the group. The 2018 World Cup finalists only managed to score in one match but certainly flashed their potential vs. Canada.

In that match, Croatia came back from 1-0 down to score four unanswered goals. Andrej Kramaric scored a brace and looked like he could be the answer to the Vatreni’s striker problem. Croatia’s strong suit remains their midfield, where Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic are mainstays.

Modric was the 2018 World Cup Golden Ball winner, as the tournament’s best player. Although the midfield is excellent, Croatia’s defense only conceded once in the group stage.

Josko Gvardiol is an exciting young defender and Dejan Lovren has a lot of experience at center back. Croatia’s record when they actually manage to qualify for the knockout stage is excellent.

In their other two appearances, they finished in third place in 1998 and in second in 2018. This marks the first time that Croatia have qualified for two successive World Cup round of 16s and they’ve been one of the more consistent teams around as of late.

Match Analysis and Odds:

This World Cup has been full of upsets and confirmed that almost anything can happen. The Japan vs Croatia odds list Japan as +300 underdogs and we know full well what’s happened when they’ve been underdogs so far. Moriyasu’s side seem to play freer when they’re not expected to win and can find a second gear. Meanwhile, Croatia come in as ½-goal favorites at -105 ATS and moneyline odds. Under 2½ goals also shows a -140 price for Monday’s match.

A draw sits at +245 odds here and Japan have drawn at least one match in their last five World Cup appearances

Incredibly, Croatia didn’t manage to win a match in 90 minutes in the 2018 knockout stage despite reaching the final. They drew with Denmark, Russia and England in 90 minutes and lost to France in the final. A draw sits at +245 odds here and Japan have drawn at least one match in their last five World Cup appearances.

If Croatia lose this would almost certainly be Luka Modric’s last-ever World Cup match. The Croatia captain has had an incredible international career and he’ll certainly feel he has unfinished business after losing in the final four years ago. Croatia don’t exactly have the same depth that Japan do but their starting XI is excellent.

If Japan can hang around for a while, they’re more than capable of getting a result and meeting Moriyasu’s quarterfinals expectation. They’re implied to be more likely to cover the spread, at -115 odds.

Japan vs Croatia FAQ

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