Japan vs Spain Matchup & Recap
Win Clinches Group E for Spain
⚽Japan vs Spain: Game Recap⚽
Results: Japan 2-1 Spain
Japan beat Spain in a dramatic, topsy-turvy comeback — but both sides went through to the last 16 at the 2022 World Cup.
Luis Enrique’s side looked on course for a routine win when Alvaro Morata headed a 12th-minute opener.
But second-half goals from Ritsu Doan and Ao Tanaka — separated by just 142 seconds — earned Japan a stunning victory that saw them top the group and book a date with Croatia.
Doan lashed home from outside the penalty area three minutes after the restart, but then midfielder Tanaka scored a controversial second in the 51st minute.
Kaoru Mitoma lunged toward a ball at the byline and centered for Tanaka to squeeze home, but though it looked like the ball had run out of play, a lengthy VAR check that confirmed the whole of the ball had not crossed the line.
By definition, the ball is out when “it passes over the goal line or touchline on the ground or in the air.” Referee Victor Miguel de Freitas Gomes was recommended to carry out a VAR check and awarded the goal after listening to his earpiece. The goal-line technology system only applies to the goal line itself. That means the VAR official checked the goal via the eye test, which is in line with FIFA protocol.
The ordeal seemed very controversial, but we must accept it as law since it’s under FIFA protocol.
Despite the chaotic defeat, Spain joined Japan in the round of 16 on goal difference.
Germany beat Costa Rica 4-2 in the group’s other finale but was knocked out of the World Cup in the group stage for a second consecutive time.
 Japan | – |  Spain |
|---|---|---|
| 18% | Possession | 82% |
| 6 | Total Shots | 12 |
| 3 | Shots on Target | 5 |
| 2 | Shots Wide | 2 |
| 1 | Shots Blocked | 5 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 0 | Corners | 2 |
| 3 | Yellow Cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red Cards | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 67% | Pass Accuracy | 91% |
| 0 | Dribbles | 4 |
| 2 | Crosses | 22 |
| 11 | Tackles | 11 |
Did We Get It Right?
Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on November 28, 2022.
Knockout Stage Hopefuls Clash
Group E is shaping up to be one of the most interesting groups in the World Cup. Germany kept themselves alive by getting a late equalizer vs. Spain. Meanwhile, Japan fell to Costa Rica despite outplaying them. With last 16 berths on the line, Japan take on Spain in an excellent last group stage match. We’ll take a look at the latest odds from this Japan vs Spain matchup and preview the match.
Japan vs Spain
Date, time (TV):
Location: Khalifa International Stadium, Ar-Rayyan, Qatar
Streaming: FOX, Telemundo, Peacock
Team Standings and Odds:
| Team | FIFA World Ranking | World Cup Qualifying Record | Knockout Stage Odds | Odds to Win Group | Odds to Win World Cup |
| Japan | 24 | 7-1-2, 2nd AFC Group B | +500 | +700 | +25000 |
| Spain | 7 | 6-1-1, 1st UEFA Group B | -20000 | -1700 | +650 |
| All Meetings: | Teams |
|---|---|
| Apr 2001: | Spain 1-0 Japan |
There’s only been one previous Japan vs Spain matchup and the 2001 friendly finished in a 1-0 Spain win. They’ve both appeared at the each of the last seven World Cups but this is their first meeting in the competition.
Japan: Miss Clinching Opportunity
Standings: 1-1, 3 pts, 2nd
Previous Match: 0-1 L vs. Costa Rica, 2-1 W vs. Germany
Japan played themselves into an excellent position after their first group stage match. With an incredible 2-1 upset win over Germany, they were -235 favorites to defeat Costa Rica and clinch a knockout stage berth. Interestingly, Hajime Moriyasu made five changes to the starting XI heading into the Costa Rica match. The first half, which started at 5:00 a.m. Eastern, was likely to put viewers back to sleep. There was very little first half action and no clear cut chances.
The Samurai Blue set up more attacking in the second half but couldn’t seem to find a breakthrough. Japan pinned Costa Rica in deep but all it took was one shot on target for Keysher Fuller to win the match for Costa Rica. With the loss, Japan odds to win the group fell from +350 to +700. More tellingly, their knockout stage odds dramatically shifted from -455 to +500.
This was a golden opportunity for Japan to clinch vs. a Costa Rica team that lost 7-0 to Spain but they couldn’t capitalize. Japan have proven they can hang with the best teams but defeating Spain should be a massive challenge. Moriyasu’s lineup choices can certainly be called into question. He left the creative Takefusa Kubo on the bench vs. Costa Rica and has only brought on Takumi Minamino as a substitute during the tournament. Perhaps we’ll see even more tinkering with the lineup for the Spain match.
Spain: In Control of Group E
Standings: 1-1-0, 4 pts, 1st
Previous Match: 1-1 D vs. Germany, 7-0 W vs. Costa Rica
It was clear to see why some are picking Spain to win the World Cup in their 7-0 humbling of Costa Rica. They played a new and improved version of tiki taka football with incisive passes in the final third and clinical finishing. It was always going to be difficult for La Furia Roja to replicate their performance vs. Germany. The Germans almost certainly needed a result to stay in the tournament and they managed to get one.
Spain’s Alvaro Morata came on as a substitute and opened up the scoring, 62 minutes in. It was another substitute that leveled the match, Germany’s Niclas Fullkrug. Both teams had their moments but proceedings ended in a draw. It’s not at all a bad result for Spain who will advance as group winners with a win over Japan. The FIFA World Cup odds price Spain as gargantuan -20000 favorites to advance and at -1700 to win the group.
Spain’s young midfield duo of Pedri and Gavi has looked excellent thus far. Dominating possession looks easy for Spain and they managed to create a handful of good opportunities vs. Germany. Unai Simon was also up to the task in goal and made some excellent saves after he was basically a bystander vs. Costa Rica. The feeling was that Spain let a golden opportunity slip away by conceding a late goal and they’ll be motivated to win vs. Japan.
Match Analysis and Odds:
This Japan vs Spain matchup is expected to go Spain’s way. They’re 1½-goal favorites coming into Thursday’s match but priced at +110 odds to cover. Japan sit at -130 ATS odds and could certainly keep things close. However, the Samurai Blue sit at just +700 odds to win, which is what they may need to advance.
Spain are -250 moneyline favorites and should create a bunch of opportunities at the very least. The front line of Dani Olmo, Marco Asensio and Ferran Torres is a bit unconventional, without an out-and-out striker, but has been quite effective. A draw, which will certainly be enough for Spain, comes in at +375 odds.
Under three goals shows a -150 price and the over sits at +130 odd
With Spain’s goal scoring potential, the over/under goal total for the match is listed as three goals. Under three goals shows a -150 price and the over sits at +130 odds. To be fair, Japan’s defense has looked quite solid despite conceding in both matches.
With the Germany vs. Costa Rica game happening at the same time, Japan’s optimal tactical strategy is difficult to know. They won’t be sure whether a draw is enough to qualify until the Germany match is over. However, if they go all out for the win they’re inviting Spanish counter attacks. Japan did create a blueprint for upsets in their match vs. Germany, though. The Samurai Blue absorbed pressure and made Germany pay on the break.
