Finding Kentucky Derby Diamonds with Sierra Leone
2024 Kentucky Derby Odds Set Tone for Triple Crown Race
All eyes are on the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs this Saturday, which is the biggest race on the horse racing calendar.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds have Fierceness at +250 to win, but Sierra Leone on the second line of betting at +300 could offer more value.
We look at the best horse racing betting chances for the Kentucky Derby, including for the win and place.
Sierra Leone Shining Bright
Our top pick for the 2024 Kentucky Derby is Sierra Leone, who couldn’t have been more impressive winning the Blue Grass Stakes. Kentucky Derby results don’t always feature form from the Blue Grass Stakes, but it was hard not to be impressed.
The Chad Brown-trained colt breezed past his rivals, including Just a Touch and Epic Ride. That’s a good form guide, and he could give Brown his first Kentucky Derby win.
Since the addition of blinkers two runs ago, he has become a different horse. He was defeated by 20-1 Derby outsider Dornoch in the Remsen, but adding blinkers has turned his form around.
He also looks set to handle the distance, so getting +300 is a good price for the second favorite with 2024 Kentucky Derby odds.
Which Fierceness Turns Up?
We’re not leaving Fierceness out of our picks, but we’re hoping the best version of the colt turns up.
The inconsistent 3-year-old by City of Light was installed as the Derby favorite following an impressive win in the Grade I Florida Derby, and he never looked like getting beaten.
Based on that run, we’re not surprised by the +250 odds. However, there is a big concern with his fluctuating form, including seven in the Champagne Stakes and a third in the Holy Bull.
He has no chance of winning based on those runs, but maturity could be his best friend. Bettors should expect Todd Pletcher to get the best out of him, as he does with most of his Kentucky Derby entrants.
We have seen stronger Florida Derby fields, but given the way he won, he’s an obvious top two for this weekend’s race.
Forever Young Headlines Japanese Invasion
Never underestimate Japanese runners as they are bred to be tougher than American thoroughbreds.
Forever Young is an unbeaten colt for Yoshito Yahagi, and he has taken out the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby.
It’s always hard to line up how that form stacks up in the Kentucky Derby, but we’re prepared to include him with horse racing to place wagers.
The well-bred son of Real Steel is likely to camp just off the speed, which is always ridiculously fast in the Derby, and he could strike with a late burst of speed.
He has shown excellent tactical speed so far, so an international raider could upset the favorites.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds have Forever Young at +800, so he hasn’t been missed. He’s a great each-way bet in the Churchill Downs feature.
Track Form with Honor Marie
Honor Marie has form around some of the best runners in the field, but it’s his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club that stands out.
The son of Honor Code didn’t beat much on that occasion, but having winning form at Churchill Downs puts him a few pegs above some of the opposition.
He followed it up with a fifth in the Risen Star behind Sierra Leone, and we know how strong that form is. He will need to make up some lengths on that effort, but he comes off a second placing behind Catching Freedom.
Some horses race better at certain tracks, and at odds of +1800, Honor Marie is well worth including in your Kentucky Derby selections.
He should pay around +450 for a top three finish, so include him in each-way and trifecta picks.
Rain Brings Mystik Dan Into Play
If there is moisture in the surface, and wet weather is expected on race day, Mystik Dan comes into contention.
The Ken McPeek-trained colt won the Southwest Stakes on a sloppy track in February, and those conditions would play into his hands.
He followed it up with a third placing in the Arkansas Derby behind Muth, who was denied entry into the Derby because he’s trained by Bob Baffert.
Getting +2200 is a price bettors should snap up, especially if the weather forecast is accurate. Many of the favorites won’t handle the slop, and Mystik Dan could produce another gutsy effort.
If we look into our magic 8-ball, we see a bright future for one of the outsiders. Watch his odds firm considerably if rain falls either throughout the week or on race day. As we know, the heavens can open on Kentucky Derby Day.
For Horse Racing odds analysis, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
