Mystik Dan Upsets Kentucky Derby Favorites
Jockeys Catch Strays With Our Kentucky Derby Recap
Mystik Dan caused an upset in the 2024 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Our Kentucky Derby recap looks at how the supposedly wet track specialist beat the two favorites, who came flashing late at the end. We also look at the Triple Crown chances of Mystik Dan, and whether the 2024 field will be a vintage group.
The Best Rides Wins the Race
Being a jockey is a tough job. You have to make split-second judgments on top of a horse, but there were some head-scratching rides in the Kentucky Derby. However, the jockey who used his smarts was Brian Hernandez Jr, who came along the inside rail to steal the race. He even went under the radar of the race caller.
Not covering extra ground is crucial in any horse race, let alone a Grade I feature where margins are tight.
“Once we got to the second turn, everybody outside of Track Phantom started piling up and piling up,” Hernandez Jr said. “I had a nice little pocket there. I was like, ‘Well, we’ll just sit here and let them pile up’. Once Track Phantom just kind of moved off the rail just half a step, we were able to kind of get through there. We might have took out a little bit of the inside fence, but that’s okay!”
Mystik Dan received the perfect trip in transit, and although the horse deserves plenty of credit, we don’t think he wins without a good ride. The colt was considered a wet track specialist having won the Southwest Stakes in sloppy conditions. However, he showed that he can win on dry ground, which is great to see.
The Derby winner isn’t certain to head to the Preakness Stakes. The Triple Crown doesn’t have the same mystique as it used to, so connections don’t care too much about racing in all three races.
He paid $39.22 for a $2 bet, which was a value price for those who bet on horse racing.
Favorites Ruin Their Chances
We will talk about the ride on Fierceness soon. But the favorites who ruined their chances were Sierra Leone and Forever Young.
We’re being hard on Forever Young. The Japanese runner, who returns home this week following a third placing, was laid in on throughout the entire straight from Sierra Leone, so it wasn’t his fault.
The fault of Sierra Leone not winning lies with the horse and jockey. He made up lots of ground around the turn to loom as the winner, but he wouldn’t run straight.
Tyler Gaffalone didn’t show much effort to straighten his mount. Had he done so, we have little doubt the second favorite would have won the Kentucky Derby.
Our Kentucky Derby recap might be harsh on the jockeys, but it’s often the determining factor in winning and losing. Gaffalone even pushed off Forever Young to try to get some space, but he didn’t make much effort to straighten.
Sierra Leone should have won, and his name should have been at the top of Kentucky Derby results. However, the expensive colt has to settle for second, and he’ll likely miss the Preakness Stakes and head to the Belmont Stakes.
That’s the common thought process from trainers now, and he should run as the favorite for that race.
What on Earth, John?
John Velazquez is a quality North American jockey, but running three-wide the trip is a good way to ruin your chances.
It’s common in North American racing to see jockeys happy to sit wide throughout the race, but it’s considered a shocking ride in other parts of the world. At no point did he attempt to find cover with Fierceness, and surely he knew his horse would be gasping for air in the straight.
Bettors who had Fierceness on their ticket had every right to concede their money after 300 yards. He was never going to win being that wide throughout, and it’s a huge brain fade, especially on the favorite.
That has thrown the campaign for Fierceness up in the air after finishing well down the track in 15th. It’s one of the poorest finishes for a favorite in recent memory. But take nothing away from the horse.
Our Kentucky Derby recap looks at the positives and negatives, and this was the biggest negative in the race.
International Form Stands Up
The internationals haven’t had much success in the Kentucky Derby, but Japanese runner Forever Young and T O Password showed their toughness.
Forever Young was terrific, going down by a short margin and being interfered with down the entire Churchill Downs straight. We thought he would have been promoted to second, but either way, it proved international form stands up.
T O Password was a surprise result for fifth. He wasn’t expected to run well, but he was unbeaten entering the race, and he did his connections proud.
If could pave the way for more international dirt runners to come over, despite many of the world’s best 3-year-old thoroughbreds racing on grass.
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