Close IndyCar field for the Sonsio Grand Prix at Road America

The IndyCar Series stays in the Midwest this week for a trip to the longest road course on the IndyCar calendar: Road America. The Sonsio Grand Prix at Road America will feature high speeds and exciting racing. Last year’s race saw 11 lead changes between seven drivers before Josef Newgarden won.

It was already a close start to the 2023 IndyCar season heading into Detroit. The first six races saw just one repeat winner, with Newgarden taking victories in Texas and the Indy 500.

GMR Grand Prix winner and 2021 IndyCar champion Álex Palou took the weekend to jump ahead of the competition. Top title contender Pato O’Ward again had trouble and crashed out to 26th after a problematic pit stop. Newgarden could only manage 10th on the new circuit.

Palou took pole position and held off defending champion Will Power for his second win of the season. That win, plus misfortune for other top runners, saw him open the gap to second place in the IndyCar standings to 51 points.

Here’s how the odds look for victory on Sunday.

Newgarden, Palou, O’Ward lead group of favorites

Palou’s built a lead in the championship thanks to his consistency, much like his title-winning campaign in 2021. He only won three races that year, including a victory at Road America, but he finished in the top eight in 12 of the 16. In the first half of the IndyCar schedule in 2023, he’s been similarly consistent.

That win in Detroit maintained his perfect record of top-eight finishes in seven races so far. No one can match those numbers in the IndyCar field in 2023. Scott Dixon’s the closest with six, but his best result was third in St. Petersburg.

Palou rightly comes into Road America at +550 odds, third best on the board. He’s been in top form recently with back-to-back pole positions and two wins in the last three races. He’s won at Road America before, and five of his six career wins have been at road courses.

IndyCar Series fans are waiting for O’Ward’s luck to finally change. His 24th- and 26th-place finishes have him 82 points behind Palou in fifth place in the IndyCar standings. Unfortunately, his track record at Road America is not good: one pole and one podium over five races. He carries a +800 price into the race.

Last year engine failure caught him out with nine laps to go. He needs a win soon to remain within a shout of Palou for the title. Road America’s one of his worst tracks, so it would be a surprise but a necessary one for the Mexican’s title hopes.

Newgarden was the first driver to two wins in 2023 ahead of Palou with his victory in the Indy 500. His 10th-place finish in Detroit pushes him to third behind Palou and Marcus Ericsson in the championship. He’s shined on ovals in 2023, but he’s an accomplished road course driver, especially at Road America.

He won from the pole in 2018 and started on pole in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, he won after leading nearly half the race. Last year Newgarden missed out on the title due to inconsistency. A third win in eight IndyCar races would quell worries about that this year.

Accordingly, Newgarden leads the odds board at short +450 odds to win outright.

Will Power’s strong showing in Detroit was the best he’d looked all season. The defending champion had just one podium in the six races before that. He’s been solid at Road America. A win from the pole in 2016 was his best showing. Since then, he has had five top-five qualifying results and four top-five finishes.

He’s traditionally best on road courses so that he may use the momentum from Detroit for a good result here. Team Penske has won all even-numbered rounds so far this season. Either he or Newgarden could continue that trend here in round eight.

Power pays +800 for an outright win at Road America.

Next tier full of contenders

Colton Herta’s had a so-so 2023 season. Twentieth in St. Petersburg was a rough start, but he’s managed four top-10 finishes in the six races since then. His best result was fourth in Long Beach. Herta shines on road courses, especially Road America. It’s one of his best tracks, with one pole and four top-five finishes. Penske and Chip Ganassi have a hold on wins this year, but Herta would be a solid choice to change that this weekend. Herta pays +1400 to win.

Alexander Rossi’s come on strong as the IndyCar schedule reaches halfway through the 2023 season. After consecutive 22nd-place finishes in Texas and Long Beach, he’s made the top eight in every subsequent race. He’s on pace for his best season since 2019 and would cash at 10-to-1 odds to carry the race.

A podium at the GMR Grand Prix and fifth place in the Indy 500 and Detroit have him sixth in the championship. He’s also been stronger at road courses than any other type of race in his IndyCar career. He started from pole here last season and won in 2019. He’d be a worthwhile bet for a bigger payout this Sunday.

He has some of the longer odds for a win on Sunday, but Ericsson will likely be up the order. After his win in St. Petersburg, the Swede’s been consistent, though not as high up as Palou. Podiums in Long Beach and the Indy 500 have kept him at the top of the IndyCar standings for much of 2023.

He’s typically struggled in qualifying at Road America but made up for it on race day. He’s notched just one top-12 start (last season) but finished in the top 10 four times. He’s yet to win on a road course in his IndyCar career, so a win would be a slight surprise. The +1800 odds for Ericsson might be a reach but the shorter +400 price for him to podium might be worth a look.

Predictions for the Sonsio Grand Prix at Road America

Road America is the longest and fastest road course the IndyCar Series will visit this season. It’s often an exciting race for drivers and fans, with multiple drivers competing for a win.

That said, Palou has been the best driver over the last month. He’s been fast and consistent so it’s hard to bet against him taking his third victory in four races.

Other drivers may offer a better payout among the Sonsio Grand Prix at Road America odds. Look to Power (+800) to use the momentum from his Detroit podium to contend or for Rossi (+1000) to surprise with his first win of the season.

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