Newgarden leads favorites in Inaugural IndyCar $1 Million Challenge

The 2024 IndyCar season is in full swing after the opener in St. Petersburg. Two-time champion Josef Newgarden swept pole position, fastest lap, and the race win to establish his championship campaign early on. This week, IndyCar will race a non-points-paying event for the first time since the 2008 Nikon Indy 300.

It’s the inaugural race at The Thermal Club in Riverside County, California. Because the circuit is new, the IndyCar $1 Million Challenge odds reflect the current championship order after one race.

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IndyCar $1 Million Challenge: Favorites

• Josef Newgarden (+280)

Since The Thermal Club is a new track for the IndyCar 2024 schedule, using track records from similar circuits is helpful. It is similar to Circuit of the Americas in track surface and conditions and Road America in layout (multiple straights, mostly medium-speed corners).

Newgarden has been great at both of those comparable circuits in his IndyCar career. He finished second in his sole race at Circuit of the Americas and has two wins at Road America. He’s won two races in a row in each of the past two seasons. If he can do that again to start the season, he’ll easily become the championship favorite.

• Pato O’Ward (+500)

Another year, another second-place finish to start the season for O’Ward. The Arrow McLaren driver finished runner-up in the season opener for the second consecutive year. In 2023, O’Ward followed that with another second place in Texas. Luckily, this could be a different story.

He raced at Circuit of the Americas once in IndyCar: 2019 with Carlin in his second career IndyCar event. He impressed by finishing eighth, his top result that season. He’s raced well in Road America, too, with one pole position and two top-three finishes in four races.

O’Ward had bad luck often in 2023 and went winless. It’d be a cruel twist of fate for him to win his first race since July 2022 in an event that didn’t include championship points. But it wouldn’t be a surprise.

• Colton Herta (+600)

Herta’s track record at comparable circuits is consistently good. Herta won IndyCar’s 2019 race at Circuit of the Americas and has the best average finish at Road America among active drivers. In six career races there, he’s finished in the top five in all but one event.

Herta’s off to a much better start already in 2024 than last season. He finished fifth in St. Petersburg last time out, a place he bested just twice in 2023. Like O’Ward, it’s been well over a year since Herta’s last IndyCar victory. It wouldn’t be surprising to see it happen this weekend.

• Álex Palou (+700)

The defending champion started his title defense with a sixth-place finish in St. Petersburg. That’s one of his better finishes historically at the track. He’s one of the best drivers on the grid in Road America with two wins in the last three races there.

• Marcus Ericsson (+800)

Ericsson likely has the best background to perform well at The Thermal Club among active drivers given his Formula 1 experience. He’s also raced well in Road America with two top-five results in six career IndyCar races there. He had a bad result last time out in St. Petersburg but could easily bounce back this week.

IndyCar $1 Million Challenge: Sleepers in Riverside

• Scott McLaughlin (+900)

McLaughlin’s barely a sleeper with these IndyCar betting odds but he does offer a solid payout this weekend. He earned a podium in the season opener and it likely is a sign that he’ll be challenging for the title more in 2024 than in years past.

He’s been good but not great in Road America (two top-10 finishes in three events) so this is more of a momentum play than the track record bets of the favorites above him.

• Scott Dixon (+1200)

It’s hard to ever bet against a seven-time IndyCar champion. Dixon’s experience will help him in the new circuit, more so than many other drivers on the grid. He’s done very well at Road America with two wins and four other top-five finishes in nine career IndyCar races there.

Ninth in St. Petersburg was a solid but unspectacular start to the season. He’s a safe choice for a solid result this week.

• Will Power (+1200)

Speaking of safe choices, Power is arguably the safest choice on the grid, especially in IndyCar qualifying. His 70 career pole positions is the most in series history. He’s already off to a better start in 2024 than his title defense last season.

He finished fourth in St. Petersburg; it took him four races to finish in the top five last season. He’s been solid in Road America in his career with top-five results in five of nine races there.

IndyCar $1 Million Challenge: Predictions

This weekend will be the toughest race to predict on the IndyCar calendar this season. It’s a new circuit to the series and holds no importance in regards to the championship. It’ll be interesting to see how the drivers and teams treat the event.

Of the favorites, riding Newgarden’s hot hand is a good play but Herta would be the better choice. If you want a slightly better payout, Ericsson’s a great option. Of the sleepers, go with Dixon. His experience will be an asset this weekend.

For IndyCar news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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