Bommarito Automotive Group 500 Odds: Newgarden’s IndyCar Oval Sweep

The 2023 IndyCar season is closing in on the final races. It’s been the season of 2021 champion Álex Palou as the Spaniard’s built a 101-point lead in the championship with three races to go. This week, the grid heads to World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, Illinois, for the final oval event on the calendar. Unlike how it’s been for much of the season, Palou isn’t the favorite for the win on Sunday. Here’s how the Bommarito Automotive Group 500 odds for victory this weekend likely stack up.

Newgarden pacing the field once again

Palou’s been a consistently strong racer on street and road courses in 2023. The middle of the IndyCar schedule favored his pace this year as he took four wins in five races. Those four — the GMR Grand Prix, Detroit, Road America, and Mid-Ohio — were either road or street courses. He took second in another street race (Toronto) to bookend that stretch.

But he hasn’t had that same success on ovals. Instead, that’s gone to Josef Newgarden.

Newgarden’s victory in Texas in the second round of the IndyCar race schedule started what’s become a fixture this season: him taking the chequered flag at ovals. His four wins in 2023 are all at ovals: Texas, the Indy 500, and both Iowa races.

He’s favored in Madison for his results this year and at this track in the past. Seven World Wide Technology Raceway career races have yielded four wins and two top-10 finishes. No active driver’s led more laps at that track than him. If he wins, he’ll be the first driver since IndyCar’s reunification with CART/Champ Car to win every oval contest.

Scott Dixon’s fresh off a victory at the Gallagher Grand Prix, which prevented his first winless season in more than a decade. He’s now the closest challenger to Palou and comes to a track he’s won at before (2020). He took pole here in 2018 en route to third. Every time he’s finished a race in Madison since its return to the calendar, it’s been in the top 10. He could make it two wins on the trot and keep the title fight alive for another week.

Reigning oval champion Pato O’Ward hasn’t had the same luck at ovals this year as in 2022. Last year, he managed one win (Iowa 2) and three top-five results in five oval races. This season, his best oval result are second in Texas and third in Iowa 1. He’s too far back to catch Palou for the championship, but a win here would be his first at the track, giving him confidence heading into 2024.

Scott McLaughlin’s only raced in Madison twice in his young IndyCar career. But he’s finished in the top five in each race, third last year, and fourth in 2021. In his career, McLaughlin’s been best on ovals like Madison, with an average finish of fourth. He’s yet to win on an oval in IndyCar racing; that could change come Sunday.

Longer Bommarito Automotive Group 500 odds this weekend

Marcus Ericsson nearly won his second Indy 500 in a row this season were it not for a wild finish to the race. He led the championship for much of the season but fell off the pace as Palou and others jumped up the order. He’s improved lately with four consecutive top-10 results, including fourth in Iowa 1. A win for him on Sunday may be unlikely, but it would not be a big surprise.

Palou’s made IndyCar news off the track by deciding to stay with Chip Ganassi in 2024 instead of moving to Arrow McLaren. He likely won’t make news on it this weekend. He’s never won on an oval in his IndyCar career, and it’d be a major surprise to see that change this weekend.

David Malukas has just one race in Madison under his belt, but it was a second-place finish last season. This year, his best result came at arguably the track most similar to World Wide Technology Raceway: Texas. It’d be an incredible surprise, given his standing (17th in the championship), but he’s shown speed around here before.

Predictions for the Bommarito Automotive Group 500

The Bommarito Automotive Group 500 odds are likely to favor Newgarden for another win for a great reason. He’s been the class of the field on ovals in 2023, and that doesn’t look like it will stop anytime soon. He is the safest pick for a winner on Sunday.

Beyond Newgarden, O’Ward could finally get a win on the board in 2023. He or McLaughlin could challenge Newgarden for the win. If you’re looking for a low-risk, high-payout choice, Malukas is your man.

For betting news, IndyCar odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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