Championship leader Palou paces Grand Prix of Nashville odds

There’s just over a month left in the 2023 IndyCar season. So far, it’s been the year of Álex Palou; the 2021 champion went on a tear mid-season to race out to a big lead in the standings. But thanks to wins in both Iowa races, Josef Newgarden has reduced Palou’s lead to just 80 points with five races to go starting in Nashville. For the final street course of the year, oddsmakers have a familiar face at the top of the Grand Prix of Nashville odds.

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Palou, Newgarden pace the field

Before the Iowa doubleheader, Palou looked near unbeatable. He notched four wins in six races, with victories at the GMR Grand Prix, Detroit, Road America, and Mid-Ohio. Even when he didn’t win, he finished well with fourth in the Indy 500 and second in Toronto.

He leads the IndyCar odds for victory this weekend at +400. He’s already had a street course win in Detroit and second in Toronto’s an excellent track record this season. Historically, he’s been best on street courses in his IndyCar career, with an average finish of sixth in 15 races. Rebounding from eighth to third in Iowa to win in Nashville could seal his second championship.

Newgarden’s next for victory at +550. A pair of wins in Iowa gives him a sweep of ovals so far this season. He’s the only driver besides Palou to win multiple races, with four each. The deficit is more manageable, but he hasn’t been as strong on street courses this season. He finished 17th in St. Petersburg, ninth in Long Beach, 10th in Detroit, and fifth in Toronto. Last year, he took sixth in Nashville. The Tennessee native will need a significant change in form to take the win on the street course.

McLaughlin leads the next bunch

After the two title contenders, Scott McLaughlin is next in odds for victory at +750. McLaughlin’s having a solid 2023 with one win (Alabama) and a second-place finish in Iowa 1. He’s fifth in the IndyCar standings but 148 points behind Palou. Last season, he took pole and finished second to fellow Kiwi Scott Dixon.

In his IndyCar career so far, McLaughlin’s struggled on streets compared to other tracks, with an average finish of 12th. He finished outside the top five in all four street races in 2023. Given his pace last year, he could turn it around, but it’d be a big step up in form.

Dixon, Colton Herta, and Kyle Kirkwood are all tied at +800. Dixon won last year from 14th on the grid and finished second in 2021. Aside from a 27th-place finish in Long Beach due to contact with Pato O’Ward, Dixon’s raced well on street courses this season. Third in St. Petersburg, fourth in Detroit, and fourth in Toronto made him the picture of consistency.

The last time he was winless this far into the IndyCar schedule was in 2014. He hasn’t had a winless season since 2004. He’s got to break through sooner than later.

Herta’s had a frustrating 2023 season. He managed just one top-five finish in the first seven IndyCar races, only to turn around and notch consecutive pole positions in Road America and Mid-Ohio. Those only yielded fifth- and 11th-place finishes, respectively. He worked through the chaos in Toronto for a third-place result but fell off again in both Iowa races to finish 19th and seventh.

He put his car on the pole in the first Nashville race in 2021, only to crash with six laps to go. Last season he started back in 23rd but made it up to fifth by the checkered flag. Getting a read on what form Herta will have this week is hard. He could notch another pole and fight among the frontrunners, or he could qualify lower and come home outside the top 10.

Kirkwood had a dominant win from the pole in Long Beach this year for his first career IndyCar win. But since then, it’s been tough going for the Andretti Autosport driver. Just three top-10 finishes in the following nine races have him all the way back in 11th in the IndyCar standings. It’d be a surprise to see him get another victory, but so was his first win in Long Beach. It’s tough to tell where he could end up.

O’Ward rounds out the top seven Grand Prix of Nashville odds for victory at +900. Lousy luck kept him out of potential wins in the Indy 500 and Detroit when he finished 24th and 26th, respectively. But since then, the Arrow McLaren driver’s been remarkably consistent. He’s finished in the top 10 in the last five races, a feat only McLaughlin, Dixon, and Palou can match, including podiums at Road America and Iowa 1.

He’s qualified well in Nashville and started eighth in 2021 and fifth last year. A crash took him out last season after just 25 laps. Historically, street courses have been the worst format in his IndyCar career, but he’ll be motivated to get a win before the end of the season.

Longer odds for victory at the Grand Prix of Nashville

Marcus Ericsson (+1400) had a strong start to the season before fading away as Palou ascended over the IndyCar schedule. A win in St. Petersburg and third in Long Beach were strong street results, but he couldn’t match that in Detroit (ninth) or Toronto (11th). He won in Nashville from 18th two years ago. Last year gearbox issues took him out with four laps to go. Can he get a second win in 2023 this week? It’d go a long way to improving his prospects for 2024.

Will Power (+1500) couldn’t overcome teammate Newgarden despite starting on pole for both Iowa races. The defending champion’s been best at street courses this season; seventh in St. Petersburg, sixth in Long Beach, and second in Detroit are among his best results.

IndyCar’s all-time pole leader has 29 at street courses and will be near the front again. You’d have to go back to 2006 for the last time Power went through a winless season in Champ Car or IndyCar. Like Dixon, he has to break through sooner than later.

Predictions for the Grand Prix of Nashville

Palou leads the Grand Prix of Nashville odds for great reason. He’s been the driver of the year and may take a definitive win this week to push the championship out of reach. Of the two favorites, he’s the better pick for victory.

But overall, we like Dixon to get the win. He’s overdue for a victory and excels on street courses, including Nashville. He’s either won or taken second in the first two Nashville events. Ericsson’s a good choice if you’re looking for a better payout. He needs to regain his early-season form and could do so in a race he’s won before.

For IndyCar betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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