Palou favored for win number five in IndyCar Gallagher Grand Prix

Only four IndyCar races are left to go in the 2023 IndyCar season. It’s been the year of 2021 champion Álex Palou dominating once again as the teams head to Indianapolis once again for round 14 this weekend. The IndyCar Gallagher Grand Prix is the third event at the world-renown track this year and the second to use the road course layout. The first race to use that layout this year saw Palou win from third on the grid in a close battle with Christian Lundgaard. Will he be triumphant once again? Here’s how the odds break down.

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Palou paces the field again

Even when Palou hasn’t won a race, he’s still been in the mix for a podium or solid finish. He’s managed three podiums in the four weeks since his last win in Mid-Ohio. He’s yet to finish lower than eighth in any race this season. That consistency’s built a massive 84-point lead in the IndyCar standings coming into this weekend.

Palou’s favored at +330 to take his second win in Indianapolis this season. He’s excelled on road courses, with three of his four wins in 2023 coming in that format. Indy’s been especially good for him with the win in the GMR Grand Prix and pole position for the Indy 500. It’s hard to imagine he won’t be at least on the podium again this weekend and likely on the top step.

Josef Newgarden‘s next in odds at +500. He’s the only driver within a realistic range of catching Palou in the next four events. Historically, he’s had solid results on the road course. He’s finished in the top 10 in all but one race there since the 2020 season. But he has just one win (2020) as his only podium finish there. Newgarden did what he needed in Iowa by sweeping both events to keep a shot at the title. He’ll need a surprise this week to gain ground in the championship.

Defending race winner Kyle Kirkwood (+700) is next in the odds. It’d been months since his dominant win in Long Beach from pole position before his street course victory in Nashville last week. A mix of pace and great strategy pushed him from eighth to first by the chequered flag. Though he raced well, a win here would be a big surprise for the street course standout.

Pato O’Ward rounds out the top group at +750. The Arrow McLaren driver’s podium in Iowa 1 was a bright spot in what’s been a disappointing second half of the season. Inconsistency to start the IndyCar schedule this year doomed his hopes of a title as Palou rose above the rest.

He’s been similarly inconsistent on the Indy road course in his career. Second earlier this season is his only top-three finish in nine career races. He took pole in the second 2021 race, but that’s been his best result. He needs a win to get some good feelings ahead of a crucial 2024 campaign, but it likely won’t be here.

Other challengers for IndyCar Gallagher Grand Prix victory

Scott McLaughlin (+1000) had a stellar showing in Nashville in earning his first pole position of the season. If not for Kirkwood’s stellar pace and strategy, he’d likely have taken his second win of 2023. The New Zealander has some solid showings in his limited running of the Indy road course (fourth last season). He’s also gone well recently in Mid-Ohio (fifth) and Road America (eighth), in addition to his win in Alabama. Look for him to be challenging Palou near the front for another win.

Four drivers are bunched together at +1200: Colton Herta, Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi, and Will Power.

Herta’s uptick in performance from Road America through Toronto has dropped off again. He’s finished 19th, seventh, and 21st in the last three races. In the latter parts of an up-and-down season, it’d be a surprise to see him near the front again. But he has raced well here and won the first Indy road course event in 2022.

Dixon’s been nearly as consistent as Palou this season, just without a win or as many podiums. He has just two podium finishes through 13 events, one of the lowest rates in his IndyCar career. Like O’Ward, he needs a win for confidence’s sake. He’s third in the IndyCar standings but a ways off from Newgarden (42 points back) and Palou (126). While still technically able to win the championship, he’s struggled at the Indy road course with just one top-five result in the last eight events.

The Indy road course is one of Rossi’s better tracks on the calendar. He won this event last season from second on the grid and took third in the GMR Grand Prix earlier this year. He’s made the top three in four of the previous seven races here. Unfortunately, he’s been in a slump with just one top-10 finish in the last four races (10th Iowa 1). A good result would be an excellent way to bounce back ahead of the final few races.

Power’s been puzzlingly off the pace for most of 2023. The defending champion’s been in better form lately with two podiums (Mid-Ohio, Iowa 2) and in the last five events. He’s one of the best drivers on the grid at the Indy road course, with five wins in 14 races, including this race in 2021. If he’s going to get a win in any of the last four races, this week’s likely his best chance.

IndyCar Gallagher Grand Prix predictions

As much as it would be exciting for another driver to mount a challenge, it looks like this race is Palou’s to lose. He’s been the best in the IndyCar field in 2023, especially on road courses.

If you are looking for better payouts, consider McLaughlin or Power. The former’s been a good road course racer this season, and the latter has the best track record of any driver on the Indy road course.

For IndyCar news, IndyCar odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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