Vegas Favored To Win Big… Again
Another WNBA game and another massive spread for the Las Vegas Aces. The title favorites have won 14 of its last 15 games, with 12 coming by double digits. As such, the Aces vs Sky Matchup peg this “superteam” as a 14.5-point favorite. The total is set at 168. To Chicago’s credit, this falling team did cover its last spread versus Vegas. But there’s not much else to write about this also-ran.
Las Vegas Aces (21-2) vs Chicago Sky (9-13)
Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago
Just Hand the Aces the Title Already
The Las Vegas Aces 2023 WNBA season is pretty much like how Red Bull’s F1 season is this year: boring and predictable. Vegas stands atop the WNBA standings and leads in offense (115.7 offensive rating), defense (96.5), and net rating (+19.2). We might as well fast-forward it to the WNBA Finals and see if New York can upset Vegas.
Anyone that isn’t an Aces fan has little to care about outside of trying to fade this All-Star team occasionally. Vegas may be 21-2, but it is just 13-10 against the spread (ATS). On the road, this falls to just 6-6 ATS.
But if we exclude that blowout loss to Connecticut in June, the team is still outscoring teams 93.5 to 79. That 14.5-point difference is just below the team’s overall 15.5-point differential. Hence, Vegas is consistently a double-digit favorite regardless where it plays. The Aces vs Sky Matchup has identical spreads despite the games being on two different courts.
Even without Candace Parker, Vegas has enough to run teams off the court. A’ja Wilson continues to make WNBA history with eye-popping stats, while Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young are scoring over 14 points while shooting over 50% from the field.
The WNBA odds heavily favor Vegas to win the title. It’s like a foregone conclusion at this point. But on a game-to-game basis, bettors will need to whale to get any decent value out of the team. Covering the spread is hit or miss and this is where most of the excitement comes from.
Sky’s The Limit For These Wily Underdogs
As for the Sky, this team may still squeak into the playoffs, but a shot at the title is a pipe dream. Chicago has a sputtering offense that averages a 98.4 offensive rating, the second-worst in the league. If it were not for the defense, the Sky may have an even worse record. The team’s appeal comes from its success as an underdog.
Chicago was not expected to do much this season. That’s why the team has been underdogs in 15 of its 22 games. The WNBA stats show that the Sky have won just five of these games (5-10). But it covered on eight of these (8-7 ATS). This includes 3-0 ATS when 10+ points are added to their line.
This underdog role hasn’t changed much since Emre Vatansever took over for James Wade at the start of the month.
“This group, they’re so hungry, they’re so supportive. It makes it much more easier for me. And we have some established offense and defense with coach James Wade. It’s been 5 to 6 years, so it wasn’t hard for me to take over,” Vatansever said told CBS News.
Now, the team faces its steepest test under its new coach per the Aces vs Sky Matchup. With the team continuing to fight for its playoff lives, it may just cover against Vegas again.
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