A Bear Market? QB Williams The Rookie of the Year Front-Runner
No. 1 Overall Pick Caleb Williams The Heavy Favorite in the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Will There Be More Surprising Rookies During the 2024 NFL Season?
With the 2024 NFL Draft now in the rear-view mirror and the focus turning to training camps, this is a pretty good time to take a look at the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
It should not be a surprise to see that the top 10 players, according to the Las Vegas odds, to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year were first-round picks, with Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams leading the way at +175.
Just one of the last 12 players to be named the Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year were No. 1 overall draft picks so time will tell if Williams, a former Heisman Trophy winner out of Southern California can buck that trend.
The only player among the top 10 in the odds to be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is on a team listed as a co-favorite to win the Super Bowl, as receiver Xavier Worthy will suit up for the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. When looking at the NFL standings, the Chiefs sat atop the AFC West standings once again.
Let’s take a look at the current Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Ready for Passing Grades
Williams is far from the only quarterback viewed as a strong contender when it comes to the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
When it comes to sports betting analysis, Williams is stepping into a better situation than most No. 1 overall picks, with receivers D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and now Odunze to throw to. The Bears also brought in running back D’Andre Swift.
Jayden Daniels, picked second overall by the Washington Commanders, comes in at +600 in the odds to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
J.J. McCarthy, chosen by the Minnesota Vikings 10th overall, will be throwing to one of the top receivers in the NFL in Justin Jefferson so he looks like a pretty good option at +700.
If the New England Patriots had a better supporting cast, Drake Maye would probably have better odds than +1400. A quick peek at the NFL scores from 2023 will show that the Patriots tied for last in the NFL with 236 points scored last season.
Bo Nix, the 12th overall pick by Denver, is also at +1400, while top-10 pick Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons is well back at +6000 since the Falcons spent $100 million in guaranteed money to sign Kirk Cousins away from the Minnesota Vikings.
Don’t Overlook the Pass Catchers
Wide receivers won the Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2021 and 2022 when Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets won the award.
Pass catchers had won just two of the previous 14 Offensive Rookie of the Year awards before Chase ended that streak with a spectacular 2021 NFL season, followed by Wilson in 2022.
Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. was the first receiver off the board in last month’s draft when he went fourth overall to the Arizona Cardinals. He figures to become a favorite target of quarterback Kyler Murray, the 2019 Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year. He is tied for second at +600 in the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Malik Nabers (+1200) of the New York Giants, Xavier Worthy (+1400) of the Kansas City Chiefs, Rome Odunze (+2000) of the Chicago Bears, Brian Thomas Jr. (+2200) of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Keon Coleman (+2800) of the Buffalo Bills, and Adonai Mitchell (+3300) of the Indianapolis Colts are among the other wide receivers to keep an eye on.
No tight end has ever been named the Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year. Will Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders change that? He has +3300 odds to win the award.
Running on Empty?
It’s not bad enough that elite running backs are viewed as afterthoughts after their rookie contracts come to an end, now the top runners in the 2024 NFL Draft are well back in the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Just two of the last 10 running backs to be named the Offensive Rookie of the Year are still in the league with Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints the only one with the NFL team that drafted him.
With no running backs going in the first 45 picks, it is not that surprising to see the runners pretty far back in the Offensive Rookie of the Year pecking order.
Arizona’s Trey Benson (+4000), Miami’s Jaylen Wright (+4000), Carolina’s Jonathan Brooks (+5000), Blake Corum of the Los Angeles Rams (+5000), and Green Bay’s MarShawn Lloyd (+6000) have the best NFL odds among the running backs.
A Quick Look Back
While 2023 Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year was the No. 2 overall pick, C.J. Stroud was one of the front-runners for the award when the 2023 season got underway, not many who bet online could have projected receiver Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams to be the runner-up in the voting after finishing with 1486 yards on 105 catches.
Tight end Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions finished third and like Nacua, he was not a first-round pick. It was a similar story with receivers Rashee Rice of the Kansas City Chiefs and Jayden Reed of the Green Bay Packers.
There figure to be more surprises among NFL players drafted outside of the first round in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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