Bucks vs Heat Odds: Milwaukee an NBA Title Favorite

The Milwaukee Bucks are set to take the next step in their quest for another NBA title. First up is a matchup with the Miami Heat, who secured the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference via the play-in tournament.The top-seeded Bucks are an overwhelming -1200 favorite to win the series, with the Heat coming in at +750.

Game One is slated for Sunday at 5:30 p.m. (TNT) in Milwaukee. Without further ado, let’s dive in to the Bucks vs Heat odds.

Milwaukee Bucks: No. 1 Seed, Title Favorite

Led by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Milwaukee Bucks went an NBA-best 58-24 to secure the No. 1 seed in the East. With that comes big expectations. Milwaukee is favored to win not just the East (+120) but the Finals (+275) as well.

The Bucks, coincidentally, will open against the same team who beat them the last time they were a top seed. Miami knocked them out in five games in the conference semifinals during the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign. The next season, Antetokounmpo carried Milwaukee to its first NBA title since 1970-71.

Antetokounmpo is having another stellar season, averaging a career-high 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.6 combined blocks and steals per game. He did this while shouldering a larger load, with a league-high 37.3% usage rate, because of injuries to Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday.

Milwaukee’s fourth-ranked defense was a staple of its success. While Antetokounmpo was the NBA’s top-rated defender,Brook Lopez and Holiday also factored prominently on that side of the floor. The Bucks averaged the second-fewest fouls of any team and led the league in rebounding (48.6 per game).

Miami Heat: Butler & Co. Living on The Edge

Miami took a circuitous route to get back to the postseason. After losing their play-in tournament opener, the Heat rebounded with a 102-91 victory over the Chicago Bulls to secure the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. Jimmy Butler and Max Strus each finished with 31 points, helping Miami outscore Chicago 15-1 over the final minutes of the win-or-go-home game.

The Heat played in a 54 clutch games this season (second-most in the NBA), and their experience under pressure should only help moving forward. They won 32 of those games and went 44-38 overall.

As one might expect, Miami is a longshot to go anywhere in the playoffs. Oddsmakers have them at +10000 to win the East and +25000 to win the Finals. Only the Nets (+50000) have longer NBA championship odds.

The Miami Heat are led by Butler, who averaged 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.8 steals. Center Bam Adebayo factored prominently into their success as well, recording 20.4 points, 9.2 boards and 1.2 steals per game.

On average, Miami allowed the second-fewest points (109.8) in the NBA.

Handicapping The Series

Milwaukee and Miami split their four NBA regular-season meetings. However, Antetokounmpo and Middleton did not play in both Heat wins.

The Heat are tough enough defensively to steal a game if someone like Butler, Strus or Tyler Herro can get hot and carry them at the other end. That said, this doesn’t have the makings of a long series. Miami was a bottom-10 offensive team, and points will be especially hard to come by against Antetokounmpo and Co. Milwaukee has the best player in the series and a deeper roster, in addition to homecourt. You do the math.

Milwaukee is a 9-point favorite in Game One — the second-largest NBA point spread this weekend — and -410 on the moneyline, while Miami is priced at +325. The over/under is 219. Notably, the Bucks were 43-35-4 against the spread this season, while the Heat were an NBA-worst 30-49-3 ATS. Keep that in mind when assessing the Bucks vs Heat odds.

For Bucks vs Heat odds, NBA betting lines, analysis and more, visit pointspreads.com.

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