LA Lakers vs Grizzlies Odds: LeBron Ready for Another Run
Grizzlies Open As Series Favorites
Grizzlies, Lakers Rivalry Set for New Chapter
The LA Lakers survived OT in their play-in game to book a date with the Memphis Grizzlies in the first-round of the playoffs. Let’s take a look at the LA Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies Odds and see how these teams match up on the floor.
The Lakers were given a 0.3% chance to make the playoffs after their horror start to the season saw them sitting at 2-10 after the first 12 games.
The team was given a huge facelift prior to the trade deadline and the new faces better complimented their superstar duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis as the team went on to close the season with the best defense in the league since the All-Star break.
One team whose defense can certainly match them however are the Memphis Grizzlies. They finished the season 2nd in Adjusted Defensive Rating and were 2nd in defensive Effective Field Goal percentage (52.7%).
These teams were involved in a couple fiery games in the regular season, most notably sparked by a courtside incident in LA involving Ja Morant’s father and former NFL Tight End Shannon Sharpe. The Lakers did edge the season series 2-1, though the Grizzlies were comprehensive winners in their lone meeting in Memphis.
The Grizzlies opened up as -125 favorites to win this series and were quickly bet down to -135 across the board. They also opened -2.5 point favorites for Game 1, but that has also been bet out to -3.5 points.
Lakers Need Contributions From Deep
The one recurring issue for the Lakers is their inability to find consistent scoring from 3-point range.
The team was 27th in 3-point frequency this season and 25th in 3-point accuracy (35%) – that needs to change if they’re to unlock this Memphis defense.
The Grizzlies do an excellent job of limiting opponent paint touches and they are the number one defense in opponent Isolation scoring, giving up just 0.99 points per possession. They also rank 1st in opponent points in ‘Finishing at the Rim’ and 3rd in opponent Midrange scoring.
As good as LeBron and AD are at creating for themselves and forcing the attention of the defense they simploy won’t be able to win this series on their own unless they get positive contribution from their outside scorers.
D’Angelo Russell was pivotal in the Lakers run to the postseason, but he was a non-factor in the teams play-in win over his former team. His scoring and spacing alongside Austin Reaves could prove the difference given how both teams are able to defend the paint.
The second point of emphasis for LA is whether they’ll be able to continue their free throw dominance that has become a talking point around the league. The Grizzlies are 25th in Free Throw rate this season and face a Lakers defense that is 1st in opponent Free Throw Rate.
It’s an area that has become one of the most lopsided NBA team stats over the past couple months and whether we like it or not it could again play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of this one.
Grizzlies Will Look to Stay Physical
Play physical basketball without fouling – that will be the mantra for Memphis in this series.
Jaren Jackson Jr looks set to win Defensive Player of the Year and his importance to this team in this series specifically cannot be understated. With that being said, staying on the floor is what will matter most and foul trouble is something that could spell disaster for him and his team.
When Jackson is on the floor opponents are -5.5 points per 100 possessions worse, with a -4.0% average Effective Field Goal percentage to match. His +8.8 point differential when on the floor ranks in the 92nd percentile in the league and his impact is the greatest of any Memphis player on the team this season.
Having him play 36+ minutes per night is imperative if the Grizzlies are to be able to play their best basketball in this matchup and that will be the message to him from the coaching staff – no silly fouls, no being baited. That can often be hard for a free roaming defender at times but simply put they don’t stand a chance of hanging around with this LA team if he’s off the floor and hindered by foul trouble.
The second point of emphasis is going to be rebounding:
It took a while for NBA betting odds to accurately reflect the impact of Steven Adams on this Memphis team, but it seems both the market and the team have found steady ground in accounting for his absence. That being said, this is the matchup where things may be exploited given the undersized bodies that will be playing at the Center position against Davis.
Anthony Davis has absolutely dominated the boards in the matchups between these two teams, which is largely down to the fact that Memphis has played these games without Adams or Brandon Clarke; both of whom will be missing from this series.
Since losing Adams back in late January the Grizzlies have gone from being a top-5 team in Offensive Rebounding percentage and Defensive Rebounding percentage to now being ranked in the bottom-10 in the league in both categories.
Xavier Tillman is undersized and the importance of limiting LA to one-and-done possessions has to be a concern for the Grizzlies coming into this series.
If the team can find a way to win the rebounding battle while limiting the free throw disparity they will be deserving favorites and should reach the second-round without too much discomfort. All of that is easier said than done however given their injury situation.
The Grizzlies will be better suited to win Game 1 at home and the Lakers will be feeling some effects of that emotional and physical OT outing against Minnesota. Buying on the Lakers to win the series after Game 1 could represent the best value for bettors and would be the route I’d look to explore.
That’s all for our LA Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies Odds analysis. Be sure to check out all our NBA playoffs previews right here at PointSpreads.com.
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