Timberwolves vs Thunder Odds: Minnesota Look to Respond at Home
Gobert Returns to Help Bully OKC
Thunder Riding Wave of Confidence
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one game away from returning to the playoffs as they head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves. Let’s jump in to our Timberwolves vs Thunder Odds preview and see what value is on offer for bettors.
The Thunder were impressive road winners over the New Orleans Pelicans in their first elimination game as Josh Giddey announced himself with a 31 point, 9 rebound and 10 assist game. The team used a huge 39-25 third quarter to swing momentum as their defense helped them to push pace and play in transition in a way that suits them best.
The Timberwolves meanwhile have had an extra days rest and would have needed it after their bruising OT loss in LA to the Lakers. Anthony Edwards is coming off a horror 3-for-17 shooting night where he went 0-for-9 from beyond the arc. This is a matchup where they’ll need his aggressiveness to unlock this defense and he himself has said to expect better in this win-and-in scenario.
Oddsmakers have listed the Timberwolves as 4.5-point favorites on the NBA betting lines, with the total currently sitting at 227.5 points.
Timberwolves Ready To Play Bully Ball
If there’s one glaring weakness in this Thunder lineup it’s the lack of size at the Center position. That’s not a place you want to be when coming up against Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, with the former being well rested after serving a one game suspension for his incident with teammate Kyle Anderson in their regular season finale.
Jonas Valanciunas managed 16 points and 18 rebounds against the Thunder, going 7-for-9 from the field and providing plenty of second chance opportunities for the team in the first half. Ultimately, the Pelicans didn’t utilize him down the stretch but that’s something Chris Finch and the coaching staff will firmly hone in on in this matchup.
Mike Conley’s pick-and-roll action with Gobert has brought the best out of the Frenchman in Minnesota and he’s already shown how much of a handful he can be in this matchup. Gobert is averaging 19 points and 15.5 rebounds in his two full games against OKC this season.
He played just 8 minutes before getting injured against them in December in the Thunder’s only win over the Timberwolves and he was absent from their most recent matchup where Naz Reid started and finished with 28 points and 9 rebounds.
The Thunder have been bottom-5 in opponent Offensive rebounding percentage all season and that’s unlikely to change in a matchup where they are at a severe disadvantage against one of the best big men in the league.
Thunder Determined to Push Pace
If OKC is to have any chance at stealing another road win they need to find a way to turn this game into an up-and-down affair.
The Thunder were 3rd in pace of play this season and their transition offense remains their best path to attacking this Timberwolves defense. The team ranks 25th in points per possession in the halfcourt and are 23rd in Free Throw rate to match.
Challenging Gobert at the rim isn’t their best option and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely be dealing with Edwards as the primary defender preventing him from penetrating and getting to his spot in the midrange.
Getting into a halfcourt grind is only going to play into Minnesota’s hands so taking advantage of their turnover prone offense will be the key to swinging things in their favor. The Timberwolves were 26th in Turnover percentage this season and live ball turnovers are what hurt them in the second half against the Lakers.
While the Thunder have been one of the best NBA point spread teams this season it’s difficult to see them staying inside the number here. Ultimately, this game is likely to be controlled by Minnesota and their experience on this stage in front of their fans is likely a bridge too far for this young Thunder team to climb.
Expect some strong market support to come in favor of the Timberwolves closer to tip-off so grabbing the -4.5 points on them now is likely the best way to attack this game.
That’s all for our Timberwolves vs Thunder Odds preview. Be sure to check out all our play-in and playoff previews before making your next NBA wager.
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