Giannis, Bucks Hope to Change Fortunes Against Timberwolves
Bucks vs Timberwolves Betting Odds: Milwaukee Just 21-34-1 ATS
Things have not gone as planned for the Milwaukee Bucks. A sudden coaching change struggles to defend, and a loss of trust inside the locker room has made for a turbulent start to the season.
Despite that, Milwaukee is still in decent shape in the Eastern Conference. A top-three seed seems highly likely.
With the All-Star break now in the rearview mirror, the Bucks will tip off the season’s unofficial second half with a visit Friday (10 p.m. ET) to Minnesota. The Timberwolves opened as 4.5-point favorites and -192 on the moneyline, with Milwaukee priced at +160 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 224.5.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Bucks vs Timberwolves betting odds in our NBA game preview.
Bucks vs Timberwolves 
Day/Time:
Location: Target Center; Minneapolis
Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Buck vs Timberwolves Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Bucks have been among the least profitable NBA teams for bettors, going just 21-35 ATS. They have covered in only nine of their 26 road games. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are 29-25-1 ATS, including 13-10-1 at home.
Be sure to remember these trends when analyzing the Bucks vs Timberwolves betting odds and making your NBA picks.
Milwaukee Hopes to Buck Poor Trends
The Bucks — a -360 preseason Central Division favorite — started 30-13, but infighting and concerns about their steep regression on defense led to a quick-trigger firing of first-year coach Adrian Griffin. Looking for more stability, they quickly pivoted to Doc Rivers to replace him.
That move has yet to pay off. The Bucks are just 3-7 since Rivers took over, and issues on defense persist. During that span, they have allowed an average of 113 points.
Despite those issues, the Bucks still own the third-best record in the Eastern Conference at 35-21. Oddsmakers remain bullish on their potential, pricing them +300 to win the East and +700 to win the NBA Finals. At the moment, only three teams have shorter title odds: Celtics (+260), Nuggets (+475) and Clippers (+500).
In Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the All-Star Game MVP, Milwaukee boasts one of the best one-two punches in the NBA. Together, Antetokounmpo (30.8 PPG) and Lillard (24.6) have accounted for 45.4% of the team’s scoring. As a team, the Bucks rank second in the league in scoring and tied for fourth in field goal percentage. The problem is, they are just 23rd in opponents’ scoring.
Through it all, the Bucks have been difficult for bettors to trust. They have failed to cover in 13 of their last 18 games and are just 21-35 ATS. Their 38.2% cover rate is the second lowest in the NBA, ahead of only Atlanta (30.9%). That includes 1-5 ATS as an underdog.
Notably, they have had far more success against the Over/Under (29-26-1). Keep that in mind when assessing the Bucks vs Timberwolves betting odds.
T’Wolves Atop the Charts
Winners of four straight and five of their last six, the Timberwolves (39-16) rolled into the All-Star break with the Western Conference’s best record. They hold a 1.5-game lead on Oklahoma City, but only three games separate the conference’s top four seeds. In other words, things can change in a hurry.
For what it’s worth, the Clippers (+250), Nuggets (+255) and Suns (+655) all have better odds to win the West. Next on the board are the Timberwolves at +850. The Timberwolves are also +2200 to win the NBA Finals, one of seven teams with 22/1 odds or shorter.
Like Milwaukee, the Timberwolves have a formidable duo of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. One of the two has been Minnesota’s top scorer in 50 of its 55 games. Much of the Timberwolves’ success has come from the perimeter, where they are shooting 39.3% from 3. Only the Clippers have been more efficient (39.5%).
Defense remains Minnesota’s trademark. Opponents are averaging a league-low 106.7 points on 44.6% shooting, according to NBA scores. Center Rudy Gobert, the three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, has had a big hand in that success. Gobert is averaging 2.1 blocks and ranks fifth in the league with 38 double-doubles.
Minnesota has covered in five of its last six games and is 29-25-1 ATS, equaling a cover rate of 52.7%. That includes 13-10-1 ATS at home.
Handicapping the Game
This is the second meeting between the teams this season. Minnesota won 129-105 in Milwaukee on Feb. 8 behind 26 points and nine assists from Edwards. The Timberwolves — 2-point favorites — hit 21 3-pointers on 41 attempts and held Antetokounmpo to 17 points, 13.8 below his season average. Lillard did not play due to an illness.
Milwaukee is just 12-14 on the road, so it’ll need to buck that trend here. It is just 9-17 ATS in those games.
The Bucks are expected to be without guard Khris Middleton, who is sidelined indefinitely with an ankle injury.
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