Celtics Heavily Favored To Close Out Miami at Home
Heat vs Celtics Lines: Projected Total Sinks to 199.5
The top-seeded Boston Celtics hold a commanding 3-1 lead over the Miami Heat in their best-of-seven series. Boston’s first opportunity to knock out the defending Eastern Conference champions will come Wednesday (7:30 p.m. ET) in Game 5 at TD Garden.
Boston is a 14-point favorite and -1000 on the moneyline, with Miami +650 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the projected total is 199.5, the lowest for any game in this series.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Heat vs Celtics lines in our NBA playoff game preview.
Heat vs Celtics 
Records: Miami Heat (48-40) vs Boston Celtics (67-19)
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MT
Day/Time:
Streaming: TNT
Heat vs Celtics Betting Trends
The Miami Heat are 43-43-2 against the spread, including 5-5 over their last 10 games. Most of Miami’s games have gone under the total, as the Heat are just 37-51 against the over/under. Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are 44-37-5 ATS, including 5-5 over their last 10 games. As for the over/under, Boston is 44-42.
It’s important to remember these betting trends when assessing the Heat vs Celtics lines.
Miami Down and (Almost) Out
Miami’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread following its 102-88 loss in Game 4. The Heat were held under 90 points for the second straight game and shot only 9 of 33 from 3-point range. Without a consistent source of offense aside from Bam Adebayo, they had no chance of keeping pace with Boston.
The Heat continue to greatly miss Jimmy Butler, the six-time All-Star who is out indefinitely because of a sprained MCL. Butler — nicknamed Playoff Jimmy for his postseason heroics — was the Heat’s co-leading scorer during the regular season (20.8 PPG) and averaged 15.5 points against Boston.
Miami’s offense has struggled immensely outside of its 111-101 win in Game 2 when it hit a franchise playoff record 23 3-pointers. Based on what it’s done for the rest of the series, this performance looks like an anomaly. In other words, don’t expect it to happen again.
The Heat are the biggest longshots remaining in the field, with their NBA public betting odds down to +100000. At this point. Considering they are on the brink of elimination, that might even be a tad generous.
If bettors are looking to cash in on Miami, they’d be much better off wagering on the projected total for Game 5. Miami has already gone under the total three times this series and is 37-51 against the over/under. Its 42.1% cover rate is the second lowest in the NBA ahead of Denver (41.4%). Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the Heat vs Celtics lines.
Boston Moving Forward Without Porzingis
All is well with the Celtics outside of an injury to Kristaps Porzingis. The veteran forward limped off the floor early in Game 4 with an apparent calf injury. Although Porzingis (20.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG) seemingly avoided the worst-case scenario, the 7-foot-3 big is still expected to miss significant time.
Fortunately, Boston went 21-4 without Porzingis this season. That included winning 11 of its last 12 games in his absence.
While that’s promising, the Celtics could run into problems from a depth perspective. Al Horford is expected to replace Porzingis in the starting lineup, leaving the Celtics quite thin on the bench. Do they have enough size should Horford run into foul trouble?
Now, that shouldn’t be an issue against the Heat, who lack punch in the frontcourt aside from the 6-9 Adebayo. The bigger issue will presumably be in the second round against either Cleveland or Orlando.
For now, the Celtics are in good hands with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The star-studded duo combined for 37 points in Game 4, while Derrick White contributed a career-high 38 points.
Boston covered for the third time this series and is now 44-37-5 ATS, including 5-5 over its last 10 games per NBA playoff scores.
Handicapping the Game
This is the 29th time in the franchise that Boston leads a best-of-seven series 3-1. The Celtics won all 28 of the previous series. That’s almost certain to continue, with the Heat lacking the ability to consistently match up in terms of talent and execution. With Butler out, the Heat simply don’t have the playmakers to contend.
Boston has been outstanding at home, its Game 2 loss notwithstanding. The Celtics won an NBA-best 37 games at TD Garden during the regular season, four more than anybody else.
It seems like it’s only a matter of time before this series is over. The Celtics are poised to close things out in Game 5 — and do so quite comfortably.
Heat vs Celtics Odds
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