Celtics in Driver’s Seat Ahead of Game 4 Against Heat
Celtics vs Heat Odds: Miami Hitting Under at 57% Rate
The Boston Celtics will look to grab a commanding 3-1 lead over their Eastern Conference first-round series. Game 4 is slated for Monday in Miami. Boston is a 10.5-point favorite and -520 on the moneyline, with Miami priced +390 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the projected total is 203.5 with a slight edge to the Under at -112. The Celtics also remain -8000 favorites to win the series, compared to +3000 for the Heat.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Celtics vs Heat odds in our NBA playoff preview.
Celtics vs Heat 
Records: Boston Celtics (66-19), Miami Heat (48-39)
Day/Time:
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Streaming: TNT
Celtics vs Heat Betting Trends
The Boston Celtics are 43-37-5 against the spread, including 4-6 over their last 10 games. A majority of Boston’s games have gone over the total, as the Celtics are 44-41 against the over/under. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are 43-42-2 ATS, including 6-4 over their last 10 games. As for the over/under, the Heat are just 37-50.
Remember these betting trends when assessing the Celtics vs Heat odds.
Boston Returns to Form
The Celtics returned to form in Game 3 and soundly beat Miami 104-84 to take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown scored 22 points apiece. But it was their defense that truly made the difference.
After allowing Miami to hit a franchise playoff record 23 3-pointers in Game 2, the Celtics tightened things defensively and held the Heat to 11 of 37 from beyond the arc. Per NBA playoff scores, the 84 points scored were Miami’s fewest since Game 5 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals.
The Celtics are now 6-1 over their last seven playoff games in Miami.
Following Game 3, Boston’s odds of winning the East grew from -180 to -245. The Celtics’ NBA championship odds also improved, moving from +145 to +125. They remain the favorites to win it all, with defending NBA champion Denver next in line at +215.
Boston is still the NBA’s most complete team, and it showed during its Game 3 rout. The Celtics were the only team to rank top five in both total offense and defense during the regular season. At this point, Miami’s offensive explosion in Game 2 looks like merely a blip and nothing more.
The Celtics have now covered twice this series and are 43-37-5 ATS for a cover rate of 53.8%. That trend bodes well for NBA point spread bettors, as the Celtics look to put a stranglehold on the series. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Celtics vs Heat odds.
Heat’s Offense Falls Flat
Miami’s inability to generate consistent offense without Jimmy Butler remains a big concern. The Heat managed only 12 points in the first quarter of Game 3 and finished 41.6% from the floor and 9 of 28 from 3. Bam Adebayo was the Heat’s top scorer with 20 points.
The six-time All-Star — nicknamed “Playoff Jimmy” for his penchant for postseason heroics — is expected to miss the whole series with an MCL sprain. Butler sustained the injury during their play-in loss to Philadelphia.
Butler’s injury has put a lot more strain on the likes of Tyler Herro and rookie first-rounder Jaime Jaquez Jr. to carry the scoring load from the perimeter. The Heat also were without Terry Rozier (neck spasms), Delon Wright (personal), and Josh Richardson (right shoulder) for Game 3, adding to their woes.
Trailing 2-1, Miami’s odds of winning the East ballooned from +7500 to +15000. The Heat are also +50000 to win the NBA title, the second-longest odds of any team aside from New Orleans (+80000). Those odds will only continue to sink unless the Heat can respond and even the series. But without Butler, that looks unlikely.
Miami has gone under the total twice this series and is 37-50 overall against the over/under. Its 42.5% cover rate is the second lowest in the NBA ahead of only Denver (41.9%). That’s hardly a surprise, as the Heat ranked third in the NBA during the regular season in defensive scoring at 108.4 points per game.
Handicapping the Game
Miami showed the blueprint for how to beat the Celtics in Game 2, shooting lights out from the perimeter in a 111-101. As impressive as that was, it looks like an aberration more than anything else.
It is unreasonable to expect the Heat to come anywhere close to matching that performance, especially without Butler. Adebayo remains productive, but he can’t answer for the Heat’s woes from deep.
Boston’s ability to generate offense through not just Tatum but also Brown is a big difference-maker. The Celtics followed their lead and were nearly flawless in Game 3, committing only six turnovers in a wire-to-wire win. They led by as many as 29 points.
Expect more of the same in Game 4.
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