Heat vs Nuggets Betting Preview: The Butler Really Did Do It! Joker and Denver Rested, Ready

Rested Nuggets Ready for Battle

The Denver Nuggets will own home court advantage in the NBA Finals as they take on the #8 seed Miami Heat as they look to win their first championship. Let’s get into our Heat vs Nuggets Betting Preview and see how this series shapes up.

The Heat survived a thrilling seven-game series with the Boston Celtics to earn their return to the NBA Finals. Miami’s hot three-point shooting showed up when it mattered most as they secured a memorable road win over the team that ousted them in the Conference Finals just a year earlier.

Erik Spoelstra’s side last made it this far in the NBA Bubble season in 2020, but fell short to the LA Lakers in that series.

Things were much more straightforward for the Denver Nuggets who swept the LA Lakers in the Western Conference Finals and found some well earned time off in preparation for the Finals. While the team hasn’t had to expend as much energy to get here, the teams they’ve beaten are equally impressive when you stack them up against Miami’s opponents.

The Nuggets are currently -360 to win the series, with the Heat being priced at +270. The -1.5 game handicap is -155 in favor of Denver.

Can Miami Stop Jokic?

It might seem an obvious statement, but there’s no denying that beating Denver comes down to one not-so-simple task: Slowing down Nikola Jokic.

The two-time MVP has been simply unstoppable these playoffs and with a full array of support around him he’s elevated his game to a level that very few players are capable of reaching.

Miami’s defense has done a terrific job of adjusting to its opponent all playoffs but their zone defense that has made them so daunting for Eastern Conference teams is something that quite simply won’t faze Denver in the slightest.

The Nuggets were 1st in the NBA rankings in points per possession versus zone defenses this NBA season and they’ve replicated that success thus far in the playoffs as well. Jokic’s ability to dictate from anywhere in the halfcourt makes him the ultimate zone destroyer and his passing can pick apart any holes that are vacated by the Heat’s defense.

While Bam Adebayo’s defensive versatility has made him one of the best defensive Centers in the league his lack of size is something that will matter plenty in his NBA matchup with Jokic. The Serbian has recorded a triple-double in both meetings with the Heat this season and don’t be surprised to see him average one in this series given the advantages he has against his opposite.

Denver’s league-best offense has found a way to crack every defense it has faced so far in the post-season and while Miami might possess one of the more complex systems given the various looks that Spoelstra will throw at them they simply have too many offensive weapons to be overly impacted by what Miami might be able to muster.

Will Miami’s Shooters Continue to Shine?

While Jimmy Butler was officially named the Eastern Conference Finals MVP there’s no denying that Miami’s role players were the key to them outlasting Boston.

The Heat had eight games all regular season where they shot 45% or better from 3-point range. They did it four times against the Boston Celtics in their seven-game series and are still shooting above 40% from deep in the playoffs.

Spoelstra has done a terrific job of re-purposing his teams offense to create for its shooters and they’ll certainly be able to generate those looks against this Denver defense.

Butler’s presence will always force a defense to gravitate towards him and their points per possession on drive and kick 3’s when the ball touches the paint is the highest of any NBA team that played in the playoffs this season.

Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent all shot above 40% from beyond the arc in the Eastern Conference Finals and if they can continue to shoot with confidence then they’ll ensure Miami stays live to win this series.

That said, the Nuggets boast the best offense in a number of key categories per NBA standings and that versatility is ultimately what gives them the deserved edge in this series. While defense wins championships this is simply an offense that can get whatever it wants thanks to a superstar that is at the very top of his game right now.

Expect Denver to defend home court with relative ease to start this series and when this offense is allowed to play from in front it’s difficult to see Miami finding a way back into the series.

That’s all for our Heat vs Nuggets Betting Preview. Be sure to check back daily for all our NBA Finals previews and analysis.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Heat vs Celtics Conference Final Bets: Does History Await Boston?
• Kevin Love Stats: From Cleveland to Miami, Impact and Analysis.
• Celtics vs Heat Conference Finals Betting: Boston Chasing History
• Tyler Herro Stats: Cleared to Start Road Back
• Heat vs Celtics Conference Finals Odds: Celts Not Going Away Like Lakers