Lakers vs Bucks Odds Preview: Middleton Returns for Favored Bucks

NBA Odds Lean Milwaukee as Injured Star Returns

The Milwaukee Bucks welcome back star forward Khris Middleton, who plays an NBA game for the first time since April 20. As such, the Lakers vs Bucks odds favor the home team by around seven points. Even without Middleton, Milwaukee has been a money-maker at home sporting an 11-2 record and 9-4 against the spread (ATS). The Los Angeles Lakers, on the other hand, have been on a roll but remain a “pretender”.

Game Information

Lakers Not Fooling Anyone With Current Run

Even after having won and covered six of their last eight games, no sensible bettor would consider the Lakers a contender. We’ll give them props for beating Brooklyn, but three of their six wins came against the tanking Spurs. The other two came over the Blazers without Damian Lillard and another NBA Draft Lottery favorite, Detroit.

Still, the Lakers need this positivity as they head to Milwaukee. The Lakers have lost three straight against Giannis Antetokounmpo’s squad and they are just 1-6 on both the spread and money line (ML) as a road underdog. Milwaukee has shot over 51 percent and have averaged over 66 points by halftime in their last three matchups. Antetokounmpo scored 44 in the Bucks’ last victory over L.A., a 131-116 blowout.

“He made it look easy, honestly,” Middleton said following the game. “That just shows the level of how he’s playing. He was knocking down his jump shot. He’s got guys going for his pump fake. Just the way he let the game come to him and stay patient, it was pretty fun to watch.”

But that was last season. The Lakers have improved their defense this year under Darvin Ham. The team is ranked seventh in rating (111.1) on the road. Now, their issues lie on their offense. The Lakers’ 103.7 offensive rating makes them the worst as a road team. In contrast, the Bucks average 115.2 at home (10th in the NBA).

Should the Lakers continue to struggle on the road, the Bucks could just make this ugly. The Lakers vs Bucks odds have the Lakers as high as a +230 underdog. But this team won’t have excuses as their “Big Three” is healthy. If L.A. is to continue climbing the NBA league standings, it will need to pull off upsets like this.

Bucks Making Big Bucks at Home

As the Lakers struggle on the road, the Bucks have been raking it at home. Milwaukee’s 69.2 percent cover rate as a home favorite is the fourth-best among teams with nine or more home games. The Bucks have beaten the likes of Dallas, Cleveland, and Brooklyn at the Fiserv Forum.

Milwaukee’s offense, which has had issues, picks up at home. This leads to games being high-scoring in Milwaukee. Eight of the Bucks’ 13 home games have gone over the total (set at 230 in this game). However, the addition of Middleton could shake things up a bit. On paper, the perennial 20-point scorer makes Milwaukee more dangerous. But he could also be rusty and the team could get out of sync trying to get him going.

His ability to knock down threes – he made 2.5 per 6.6 attempts in 2021-22 – will allow Milwaukee to further space the floor

The Bucks were four points better with Middleton on the floor last season. His ability to knock down threes – he made 2.5 per 6.6 attempts in 2021-22 – will allow Milwaukee to further space the floor. The team already averages the seventh-most made three-pointers a game this NBA season (37.3) though only at a 34.9 percent clip (17th).

Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer won’t commit to Middleton returning, however. “I think to say he’s close is accurate, and I’ll just leave it at that. Close can mean anything,” Budenholzer said when asked about the report on Middleton’s return.

If he can’t go, expect the Lakers vs Bucks odds to favor Milwaukee. This Bucks team have been the second-best in the NBA, arguably, without him. Their line may stay the same and those looking at their ML could throw them in one of the NBA parlays for a better bang for the buck.
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