Lakers vs Nuggets Conference Final Preview: Denver Slight Favorites
Can Jokic Outshine LeBron to Reach NBA Finals?
The Lakers vs Nuggets Conference Final preview shows Denver is favored -145 to win the series. The Lakers are +125. Denver finished the regular season with a 53-29 record, the best in the Western Conference. The Lakers were 43-39 during the regular season.
In the playoffs, Denver has gone 8-3 straight-up and 7-4 against the spread. The Nuggets needed five games to dispatch of Minnesota and six games to eliminate Phoenix. Denver has gone 6-5 in totals and is outscoring foes by a 115.8-106.6 margin.
The Lakers have posted an 8-4 straight-up and ATS record in the postseason. Los Angeles has seen its first two series both go six games. The Lakers are 6-6 in totals. Los Angeles is outscoring foes by an average of 112.4-107.3.
The Nuggets are one of the better home teams in the NBA. Counting the playoffs, Denver is 40-7 straight-up and 30-16-1 against the spread at home. As a home favorite, the Nuggets are 36-7 straight-up and 26-16-1 ATS. But as good as the Nuggets are at home, they’re pretty bad on the road when underdogs. Denver is 6-13 straight-up but 10-9 ATS as an away dog, which will be the case when the series is in Los Angeles.
The Lakers are 30-18 at home and 26-20-2 against the spread. As a home favorite, Los Angeles was 20-9 straight-up and 15-13-1 against the spread. The Lakers were 16-22 straight-up as an away underdog and 17-20-1 against the spread. With a 16-20 straight-up record, you would expect a much better ATS mark. With the 16 straight-up wins also being spread wins, since LA was the underdog, the Lakers were 1-20-1 ATS when they lost straight-up.
Head-to-Head Matchups
The Lakers vs Nuggets Conference Final preview notes the teams met in four NBA games during the regular season. The home team won all four games and all of them were decided by double-digits. The last time the two teams met was on Jan. 9.
Battle of the Stars
You can mention how basketball is a team sport all you want, but the winner of this series will likely be whichever team gets the most from its ‘Big 2.’ For the Nuggets, that’s Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. It’s LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Denver’s tandem is averaging 56.6 points, 18 rebounds and 16.2 assists. The Lakers’ duo is averaging 44.6 points, 24.1 rebounds and 8.0 assists. Getting a big game from the likes of Michael Porter or D’Angelo Russell will help, but both teams should ride the coattails of their big guns.
Predicting a Winner
The Nuggets are tied for being the second-highest scoring team since the playoffs began. But offense hasn’t counted for much this postseason. Three of the top five scoring teams were eliminated in the first round. Defensively, both teams are in the top six, but the top four in points allowed have been eliminated. So it takes a balanced effort in the postseason.
The series begins on Tuesday, making it the first Conference Final on the NBA schedule. The Celtics and Heat begin Wednesday and the teams will alternate days.
The Lakers vs Nuggets Conference Final preview can’t overlook how good Denver is at home. The Nuggets played hard all season to earn home court advantage. They got it and it’s hard to see them squandering a golden opportunity to reach the Finals. This series won’t be easy for whichever team advances. It should go at least six games.
The series price is basically right where it should be. The Nuggets are the slightly better team in the playoffs and they have home court advantage. Laying odds isn’t ideal for a futures bet, but it looks to be the best bet in the Western Conference Finals, so take Denver -145 to advance to the next round.
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