The 2023 WNBA Finals Series: Aces Favored in Battle of Superteams

Las Vegas Favored in Game 1 and the Series But…

Sunday marks the start of the WNBA Finals between the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty. The 2023 WNBA Finals Series odds have the former favored to win Game 1 and the series thanks partly to home-court advantage. Las Vegas is lined at around -220 to win its second straight WNBA title. However, New York had Las Vegas’s number this season. And in this battle of “Superteams”, it could be anyone’s title to win.

The Head-to-Head Matchup: Liberty Loom Over Las Vegas

If we went simply by the head-to-head meetings this season, a strong case can be made that the Liberty should be favored on the WNBA Finals Series odds. New York edged Las Vegas 3-2 in the season series. This includes a 38-point blowout, Vegas’s largest loss of the season, and an upset in the Commissioner’s Cup. And yet the Liberty are already 4.5-point underdogs in Game 1.

“I think it’s good. That’s the narrative everyone wanted at the start,” Liberty coach Sandy Brondello said in regards to their series with Las Vegas. “I didn’t particularly like the superteam thing … [but] it’s going to be a great series and it’s a promotion for the WNBA, isn’t it?”

The one thing going against New York is experience. Breanna Stewart is a two-time champion Courtney Vandersloot also won a title in 2021 with Chicago. But almost everyone else on the team has never been to this point in their careers. And they are going against an Aces team that won it all together last season.

Still, New York had to rally from losing the first game of their WNBA playoffs series against Connecticut. That may have galvanized this team as it forced the players to dig a bit deeper to rally. And many will say that the Sun were a tougher matchup as the third-best team in the league than the Dallas Wings, who Las Vegas handily swept.

Still, the Aces did not fare too well in WNBA betting terms. The team did just enough to win the final two games but failed to cover both spreads. Overall, Las Vegas is just 5-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last 10 games despite being 9-1 in this span.

Which Superstars Will Shine Brightest?

It is no hyperbole that this is a matchup between two superteams. Together, Las Vegas and New York have a total of nine all-stars: four with Las Vegas and five with New York. It would have been an even five-on-five had Candace Parker been healthy. Still, the Aces went 18-5 without her, and three losses came against New York. So, who among the nine will stand tallest and be the difference-maker?

The most obvious answer is Las Vegas’s A’ja Wilson. The two-time MVP and Defensive Player of the Year destroyed Dallas and Chicago with three straight 30-point outbursts. She’s the WNBA Finals Series’ favorite to win Finals MVP at -115. That’s something she has yet to achieve in her illustrious career.

On New York’s side, it starts and ends with Stewart. Lined at +280 to win, won the title and the Finals MVP in her rookie season with Seattle. She averaged 25.7 points, six rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 51% from the field as her Storm swept the Mystics.

But both Wilson and Stewart had on-and-off performances against each other. One could even say they “canceled each other out”. Wilson averaged under 16 points while “Stewie” shot under 40% in their five meetings against each other.

Other stars worth noting are Chelsea Gray and Jonquel Jones. The former won the Finals MVP last season as she scored an efficient 18 points per game against Jones’s old team, Connecticut. As for Jones, she was the Commissioner’s Cup MVP, and her prolific rebounding prowess could be the difference-maker.

Both are longshots at 10-1 and 25-1 to win Finals MVP, which may be the best value bets on the WNBA games today.

For WNBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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