Will Pacers Continue Owning Milwaukee in Game 1?
The Pacers vs Bucks Odds Favor Indiana With Giannis Ailing
The Indiana Pacers will visit the Milwaukee Bucks for the first game of their Eastern Conference first-round match-up. Milwaukee finished the regular season as the No. 3 seed while the Pacers landed the No. 6 seed. With the higher seed, the Bucks have a home-court advantage. That said, the Bucks aren’t sure if Giannis Antetokounmpo will be healthy enough to play in this series, let alone Game 1. This news impacts the Pacers vs Bucks odds.
Antetokounmpo injured his calf late in the regular season and hasn’t played since. Three days ago, it was reported that the Bucks were preparing to be without Antetokounmpo for Game 1 of the series.
With this news, the Pacers went from +3.5 (-105) to -1 (-110) on the road. The total also dropped from 238.5 to 231.5 (-115).
Look at the Pacers vs Bucks odds as we break down whether the Bucks are in danger without Giannis on the hardwood.
Pacers vs Bucks 
Records: Indiana Pacers (47-35), Milwaukee Bucks (49-33)
Day/Time:
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Streaming: TNT
Pacers vs Bucks Odds & Trends
The Pacers have had the Bucks’ number this season. Since November 9, 2023, the Pacers have gone 4-1 against the Bucks despite being underdogs in all five games. Three of these four wins came by at least nine points. However, the over still hit in three of the five games.
Indiana rallied in the In-Season Tournament and knocked off the Milwaukee Bucks to get into the NBA In-Season Tournament Finals, where they lost to the Lakers.
This young team won Sunday against the Hawks to stay out of the NBA Play-In Tournament. In that game, the Pacers scored 157 points as 13.5-point favorites. The Pacers looked prepared for that game and continued to turn it on for playoff-like atmospheres.
Let’s Talk T.J. McConnell
The Pacers have many rising stars and unsung heroes. But maybe T.J. McConnell isn’t getting enough praise. Head coach Rick Carlisle told McConnell he wouldn’t be part of the team’s player rotation in October. McConnell didn’t even get court time in four of the first nine games. This has changed.
McConnell has played more than 70 games this season and even started in four. He finished the season averaging better than 10 points per game and shot 55.6% from the field while dishing 5.5 assists.
Against the Atlanta Hawks, the veteran guard played just 15 minutes. But he made the most of those 15 minutes, shooting 7-for-11 from the field for 17 points. He also added eight assists and four rebounds with just one turnover. He can make a real impact for the Pacers in this first round of the playoffs.
Life Without Giannis
It’s not confirmed, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to miss at least the first game of this series if not more. The two-time MVP has a calf strain that has already sidelined him for multiple games after the season.
Without Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have lost two consecutive games to the Thunder and Orlando Magic on the road. However, both games weren’t just losses. They were 18+ point blowouts with the Bucks playing for the No. 2 seed in the conference.
With the Bucks potentially playing without Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee’s NBA Finals odds have dropped a bit. The Pacers vs Bucks odds even favor Indiana on the road to start the series.
Can The Bucks Do Anything Right?
If you look at the Bucks’ last two games, you’d think they’d be in line for the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. In two blowout losses, the Bucks scored 103.6 points per 100 possessions against the Oklahoma City Thunder and added just 91.3 points per 100 possessions against the Magic.
While the Bucks shot poorly from the field, Milwaukee also turned the ball over about 19% of the time in both games. They didn’t even earn more than 26% of offensive rebounds in either of them.
Meanwhile, defensively, the Bucks allowed both opponents to score at least 124.1 points per 100 possessions. The Magic earned 35.9% of offensive rebounds.
This doesn’t bode well for the Bucks heading into their showdown against the Pacers.
Indiana has scored at least 123.2 points per 100 possessions in seven of their last 11 games. The Pacers have one of the league’s best offenses in the NBA. They’ve shot well from the floor. However, they’ve also done better limiting turnovers and continue to dominate the offensive glass. They added at least 40% of offensive rebounds in two of their last three games.
However, the Pacers don’t have a good defense. They’ll usually do a good job limiting opponents on the glass and have been above-average in defensive effective field goal percentage this month.
The Bucks will have to find ways to get to the foul line against the Pacers. That’s the only way to slow down the Pacers and stick with them. It’s hard to out-shoot them, and it’s also hard to win the turnover battle against them.
Milwaukee will want to slow down the pace if they want any chance at Game 1. With the Bucks at home, it’s tough to rely on the Pacers in Game 1. But as long as the Pacers continue to play the way they have in April, Indiana looks much better on paper if Milwaukee is without Antetokounmpo.
You can expect the NBA playoff scores to be high in this series. But even with Damian Lillard on the Bucks, it’s unlikely the Bucks will match the offensive output of the Pacers.
Our NBA betting tips would be to consider backing the Pacers at -1.5 (-105) in Game 1 of this series.
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