Morehead St., UALR, UT Martin Vie for Top Billing in OVC Tourney
2024 Ohio Valley Conference Odds: Morehead State +100 Favorite
Year in, year out, the Ohio Valley Conference separates itself as one of college basketball’s most competitive low-major conferences. This season was no different.
For the fourth time in the league’s 76-year history, there was a three-way tie for first place. Little Rock, UT Martin and Morehead State all finished with matching 14-4 conference records. Presumably, that sets the stage for a dramatic March.
The OVC Tournament tips off Wednesday at the Ford Center in Evansville, Ind. The top two seeds, Little Rock and UT Martin, will receive double-byes to Friday’s semifinals. Meanwhile, tournament favorite Morehead State and Western Illinois, the No. 3 and 4 seeds, will receive byes to Thursday’s quarterfinals.
The championship game is scheduled for Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Rounding out the field are No. 5 Tennessee State, No. 6 SIUE, No. 7 Eastern Illinois and No. 8 Southern Indiana. Defending tournament champion Southeast Missouri did not qualify.
Southern Indiana, which is reclassifying to Division I, is ineligible to win the OVC Tournament. Should it finish on top, the automatic NCAA Tournament bid will be awarded to the tournament runner-up.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the 2024 Ohio Valley Conference odds.
THE FAVORITE
Morehead State (+100)
Morehead State is the tournament favorite, despite having to play an additional game as the No. 3 seed. The Eagles (23-8, 14-4) stumbled in February, but closed the college basketball schedule with three straight wins to earn a share of the regular-season title with Little Rock and UT Martin.
The Eagles lost to Little Rock 69-68 on Feb. 15 and split two meetings with UT Martin, winning 84-66 on Jan. 18 and losing 88-82 on Feb. 17. Notably, second-leading scorer Jordan Lathon (15.9 PPG), a transfer from Milwaukee, missed both losses.
Morehead State has the conference’s top overall player in guard Riley Minix, who is averaging 20.5 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.3 steals. The 6-foot-7 senior has 10 games with at least 25 points and three games with 30 or more.
The metrics are encouraging. Morehead State is ranked No. 123 in the KenPom ratings, more than 60 spots higher than anyone else.
TOP CONTENDERS
Little Rock (+225)
Little Rock (20-11, 14-4) is the hottest team in the conference, a winner of nine straight and 12 of its last 13 games. Its only loss during that span came against SIU Edwardsville on Feb. 1.
The top-seeded Trojans beat both Morehead State and UT Martin and is the conference’s most efficient team, shooting 47.2% from the floor.
Guard KK Robinson — at his third different school in four seasons after stops at Arkansas and Texas A&M — is the team’s top scorer, averaging 15.8 points to go with 4.3 assists. He also has a strong supporting cast, with three others scoring in double digits.
UT Martin (+380)
Like Little Rock, second-seeded UT Martin will have the benefit of a double-bye to the semifinals. The Skyhawks (21-10, 14-4) have ripped off seven straight wins, including a six-point victory over Morehead State. They also split a pair of meetings with Little Rock, winning 77-72 on Jan. 13 and falling 77-57 on Feb. 6.
UT Martin is the conference’s top scoring team, averaging 81.6 points. It scored 90 points or more 10 times and hit 100 on four different occasions. The Skyhawks rank 12th nationally in adjusted tempo, so they clearly like they get up and down the floor.
The Skyhawks have a dynamic one-two punch in guards Jordan Sears and North Florida transfer Jacob Crews, who have accounted for nearly half of their scoring. One of the two has been the team’s top scorer in 28 of their 31 games.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Western Illinois (+900)
Western Illinois record (20-11, 13-5) is strong, but its ability to beat the conference’s top teams remains in question. The Leathernecks went 1-4 against the No. 1-3 seeds, with their lone win coming over UT Martin on Jan. 11.
As the No. 4 seed, Western Illinois will receive the benefit of a bye to the quarterfinals. But its road still won’t be easy.
Ranking 331st nationally in adjusted tempo, the Leathernecks specialize in grinding opponents down in the halfcourt. They lead the conference in both rebounding and blocks and rank second in opponents’ scoring, allowing an average of only 65.4 points.
Center Drew Cisse has had a big hand in that success. The senior is averaging 11.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks.
LONGSHOT
Tennessee State (+2500)
Tennessee State (17-14, 10-8) sputtered down the stretch, dropping four of their last six games to fall to the No. 5 seed. Little Rock, UT Martin and Western Illinois accounted for three of those losses on, so there’s some explanation for the Tigers’ recent struggles.
The Tigers face an uphill battle, needing to win three games in three days to grab the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. On the other hand, they did beat Little Rock earlier this season. Maybe they can rekindle some of that success?
The NCAAB rankings — 295th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 248th in adjusted defensive efficiency — are not promising. So, it’s no wonder the Tigers’ 2024 Ohio Valley Conference odds are 25/1.
Guard Christian Brown is Tennessee State’s top scorer (12.6 PPG).
Rest of the 2024 Ohio Valley Conference odds: SIUE (+3500), Eastern Illinois (+10000), Southern Indiana (+12000).
For odds to win March Madness, NCAAB betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
