Creighton vs San Diego State March Madness Odds

Bluejays Slight Favorites to Reach Final Four

The Creighton vs San Diego State March Madness odds show the Bluejays as the team favored to come out of the South Region. San Diego knocked off tournament favorite Alabama last game and the Bluejays took care of Princeton. Both the Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin college basketball rankings have Creighton as being slightly better than the Aztecs.

The NCAAB March Madness odds have Creighton -1.5 with a total of 133. The Bluejays are -125 on the moneyline, with San Diego State +105. Tip-off is slated for 2:20 p.m. on Sunday at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. The game will be televised by CBS.

Creighton: Bluejays Shoot Lights Out to Beat Tigers

The Creighton defense was up to the challenge, holding Princeton to 46.1% shooting for the game. The Bluejays had 37-26 rebounding edge. The Tigers made five turnovers compared to 13 for Creighton, allowing them to stay in the game. But the Bluejays used a 21-12 start to the second half to basically put the game out of reach.

San Diego State: Aztecs Stun Top-Seeded Alabama

Things looked bleak for San Diego State in the second half against Alabama. Trailing 48-39 with less than 12 minutes remaining, the Aztecs watched Alabama erase a five-point halftime deficit and pull away. But the Aztecs used a 12-0 run to grab a lead they never relinquished and pull the stunner.

The Aztecs live or die with their defense and it came up huge against the Tide. Alabama made 14 turnovers and shot just 32.4% for the game.

The Tide was 3 for 27 (11.1%) from 3-point range and star forward Brandon Miller was 3 for 19 shooting. But in fairness to Miller, who had a dismal NCAA Tournament, he was nursing a college basketball injury and listed as probable due to a groin injury.

San Diego State wasn’t great offensively, shooting 37%, but it didn’t need to be. The Aztecs needed to just be better than Alabama and on Friday night they were.

Handicapping the Game

When looking at Creighton vs San Diego State, you have to look at the defense first. That’s where both teams are at their best. Creighton is No. 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency. San Diego State is No. 4. Both teams have their defensive strengths. Creighton is much better at defending the 2-pointer.

The Aztecs are better against the 3-pointer. The Bluejays don’t force many turnovers but are one of the best in the country preventing offensive rebounds. San Diego State forces more turnovers and isn’t quite as good at stopping offensive rebounds.

The Aztecs will have to defend the 3-pointer well to defeat Creighton. The Bluejays shoot the 2-pointer better but still take a lot of 3-point attempts. Of Creighton’s shot attempts, 42% are from the 3-point range. Only 34.3% of the Aztecs’ shots are 3-pointers. The Bluejays saw 34.3% of their points come from 3-pointers, while the Aztecs scored 28.2% of their points from the 3-point range.

Creighton is a better shooting team all the way around. The Bluejays are better from the field,  from beyond the arc, and are one of the best free throw shooting teams around. The Aztecs are partially able to overcome their shooting by being solid on the offensive glass. But that’s something the Bluejays are solid defending. If the Aztecs don’t get some second chances, it’s going to be that much more difficult for them.

The pace of the game should be just slightly lower than average. San Diego State is No. 255 in adjusted tempo, while Creighton is No. 139. But with a berth in the Final Four on the line, the teams may be a bit more deliberate than normal. But it shouldn’t be a complete slowdown effort by either team. It certainly won’t feature a lot of running up-and-down the court.

Creighton vs San Diego State will ultimately come down to how well San Diego State’s offense does against Creighton’s defense. The Aztecs’ offense is the weakest link in the game. San Diego State doesn’t make a lot of turnovers and Creighton doesn’t force them, which helps the Aztecs. The Aztecs will most likely need to take more shots than Creighton. The Bluejays are the better-balanced team and are probably the side you want to be on in this game.

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