Friday College Basketball: San Diego State vs Nevada Odds Preview
Only Three Games on The College Basketball Card With the Mountain West Taking Center Stage
The 24th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs (18-5/7-3) go on the road to Reno, Nevada hoping to push the Nevada Wolfpack (18-5/5-4) further behind in the Mountain West Conference log jam.
Of the 11 NCAAB teams in the MWC, only three (Fresno State, San Jose State, and Air Force) are under .500 in conference play. The Aztecs are part of a 4-way tie at the top with Nevada just 1.5 games back. San Diego State vs Nevada odds show the Wolfpack as a 2-point home favorite with a total of 140. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT.
Confidence In Ranked Aztecs Has Been Spotty
The record shows San Diego State as a program that will reach the 20-win mark once again, but as we head towards what should be an incredible conference tournament, we think bettors are struggling to find the confidence to put their money behind SDSU as they have in the past.
The Aztecs have won four of their last seven games straight-up, but from a betting standpoint, San Diego State is just 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games. It’s been difficult to understand what the identity of Brian Dutcher’s team is. Their longest win streak of the season has only reached three, a streak they can match with a win tonight. If series history is an indication of who has an advantage, the Aztecs will crush Nevada as they bring in a 27-7 all-time mark into the clash.
Since the beginning of the Mountain West, San Diego State leads the all-time series 21-4 over the last 41 years. Despite the dominance in the series SDSU has dropped 6 of 11 at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno. The Aztecs are 9-12 ATS this season adding to their 23-28-1 ATS mark over the last two NCAAB seasons.
Troubles cashing tickets on the road isn’t new this year, over the last three years San Diego State is 12-17 ATS. Head to head, the Aztecs are 1-7 ATS vs Nevada since 2020. Dutcher’s team (20th Ken Pom) will be playing in the NCAA Tournament but you can bet there will be some desperation from Nevada who is ranked 49th in the latest Ken Pom rankings.
Nevada Leans On Defense
The current adjusted defensive efficiency numbers show the Wolf Pack ranked 39th in the country, a number that matches. They’ll need every bit of that to get by the SDSU who are slightly better than the Pack at 20th in the nation. In some ways, Nevada Wolf Pack is still recovering from a four-game Mountain West Conference losing streak over 12 days in January.
Since then, the Wolfpack have won and covered three of their last four games but in many ways, the San Diego State and Nevada feel the same to bettors when it comes to developing a current identity. Steve Alford’s team is just 3-5 ATS over their last eight games, but have covered three of their last four NCAAB games after an embarrassing road loss at Wyoming.
Overall, Nevada has been a strong wager with an overall ATS record of 14-8 ATS. It’s the second straight season where the Pack has had the best of the oddsmakers with a 2-year ATS record of 33-19 (+11.04 units). Only four other teams have been stronger wagers against College Basketball spreads in that span.
Bettors Are Flocking To Bet The Wolfpack
No doubt who the betting public likes in this match-up with over 80% of the money wagered coming in on Nevada, along with 77% of the tickets. Those patterns have pushed the number up to Nevada -2 after opening -1.5. Only once this season has Nevada received more than 75% of the money and the public was rewarded when the Wolfpack covered as a 4.5-point favorite against Colorado State (77-64).
When the Aztecs received less than 25% of the support they were 2-2 ATS but 4-8 ATS over the last two seasons. We’re going against the public tonight and take the 2-points with San Diego State who is stepping into the time of year when they start to tighten down one of the best defensive teams in College Basketball. That’s it for our San Diego State vs Nevada odds preview, we wish you all the best with your NCAAB picks and parlays this weekend.
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