March Madness Round 1: Morehead State vs Illinois Analysis & Score
Morehead State vs Illinois Betting Lines: Illini Down to -12
Morehead State vs Illinois Final Score
Morehead State vs Illinois Preview
Illinois will ride the momentum of a Big Ten Tournament title into the Big Dance when it faces Morehead State in East Regional first-round play on Thursday (3:10 p.m. ET) in Omaha, Neb.
Third-seeded Illinois opened as a 13.5-point favorite, but that line has since shrunk to -12 at -108 odds. The Fighting Illini are also -800 on the moneyline, with 14th-seeded Morehead State priced +550 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 147.5, with a slight edge to the Under at -112 odds.
What can bettors expect? In our NCAA Tournament game preview, we break down both teams and assess the Morehead State vs. Illinois betting lines.
Morehead State vs Illinois 
Location: CHI Omaha Health Center; Omaha, Neb.
Day/Time:
Streaming: truTV
Morehead State vs Illinois Betting Trends
The Morehead State Eagles have covered in six straight games and are 19-11 ATS overall. As for the Over/Under, the Eagles are 15-15. Meanwhile, the Illinois Fighting Illini are 18-13-3 ATS, including 4-2 in their last six games. The Fighting Illini have gone Over the total in 70.6% of their games, the fifth-highest rate in Division I.
Be sure to remember these trends when assessing the Morehead State vs Illinois betting lines.
OVC Champ Morehead State Rolling at Right Time
Morehead State returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021 after winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The Eagles — +100 tournament favorites — beat Little Rock 69-55 in the final, their sixth straight win and 13th in the last 16 games.
The Eagles (26-8, 14-4) stumbled in February but closed strong to earn a share of the regular-season title with Little Rock and UT Martin.
Morehead State has a dynamic scorer in guard Riley Minix. He is averaging 20.8 points on 54.6% shooting, 9.8 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. Minix is coming off back-to-back 26-point games and scored 18 earlier this season against No. 1 seed Purdue.
The Eagles are most comfortable playing in the half court, where they tend to slow games down to a crawl with their methodical offense. They are ranked 335th in tempo, averaging 64.2 possessions per 40 minutes according to college basketball scores.
Efficiency has been a staple of their offense. They are ranked top 60 in field goal percentage (46.9) despite attempting an inordinate amount of 3-pointers (25.9).
TSJ Fueling Red-Hot Illinois
Illinois secured a No. 3 seed after beating Wisconsin 93-87 to win the Big Ten Tournament championship, its second title in four seasons. The Fighting Illini (26-8, 14-6) overcame double-digit deficits in all three tournament games, showcasing their offensive might and resilience each step of the way.
Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 102 points in three games, including a Big Ten Tournament-record 40 in a semifinal win over Nebraska. The senior ranks third nationally in scoring with 23 points per game, trailing Purdue’s Zach Edey (24.4) and Denver’s Tommy Bruner (24.0).
Shannon Jr. also has a pair of strong sidekicks in Coleman Hawkins and Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask.
Illinois has rode that trio to become one of the country’s best offenses. The Fighting Illini — No. 13 in the AP Top 25 NCAA men’s basketball rankings and No. 10 in KenPom — are third in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 60 in tempo. They have struggled on the other end of the floor, so they can be a bit vulnerable if they aren’t hitting their shots.
In what’s hardly a surprise, Illinois has gone over the total in 12 of its last 14 games, including three straight. The Fighting Illini’s 24-10 record against the Over/under rivals is the best in the country. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Morehead State vs. Illinois betting lines.
Handicapping the Game
This may be Illinois’ best chance for a deep tournament run under Brad Underwood since 2021, when it lost in the Round of 32 to Loyola Illinois as a No. 1 seed. The Fighting Illini have next-level talent, led by Shannon Jr. Had he not missed six games earlier this season due to suspension, Shannon Jr. likely would be an All-American.
The Fighting Illini are +3500 to win the national championship, but being in the loaded East Region does not help their cause.
Regardless, the Fighting Illini first must overcome a pesky double-digit underdog in Morehead State. The Eagles have a legitimate go-to player in Minix and a unique playing style. If they’re able to hit their 3s and force the Fighting Illini to play in the half court, they could keep this close.
That said, Illinois has far too much talent to fall victim to another early round upset. Look for the Fighting Illini to advance as they seek their first trip to the second weekend under Underwood.
For today’s March Madness schedule, betting odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
