Las Vegas Bowl Preview: (22) Utah Utes vs Northwestern Wildcats
Utes Dropped 3 of 5 ATS, Wildcats On 6-Game Cover Streak
The Utah Utes (8-4) head to the Las Vegas Bowl for the first time since 2015 to take on the Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) who will participate in the game for the first time in program history.
The Utes are no stranger to the Las Vegas Bowl or Vegas in general after sharing the Mountain West Conference with UNLV for 12 seasons. Utah is 4-1 in five Las Vegas Bowl appearances and will tie BYU for the most games played since the games’ inaugural season in 1992.
Last year, #17 Oregon crushed Florida, 30-3, making it the fifth time in six years that the game was decided by more than a touchdown. Oddsmakers opened Utah -7.5 with a total of 42.5, but Northwestern money has pushed this number down to -7 and 41.5. So far, this has been one of the most popular games to bet on the NCAA bowl game schedule, not a surprise considering it’s in Vegas.
We start our 2023 Las Vegas Bowl line analysis by first diving into the Utah Utes.
Independence Bowl Information
Utah Utes vs Northwestern Wildcats 
Day/Time:
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Stream: ABC
Will This Be A Letdown Spot For Utes?
We’ll get to the transfer portal issues that the Utah Utes are experiencing, something that should not take place until after the bowl season, but we digress. From a betting standpoint, you have to wonder how Kyle Whittingham’s team will respond to going to Vegas after back-to-back trips to the Rose Bowl.
From a city standpoint, Vegas is the better option but the difference between playing in the Rose Bowl, because you won the Pac-12 and playing in the Las Vegas Bowl, is like staying at Aria for a couple of years and then perhaps Park MGM, a nice property but doesn’t quite carry the same prestige.
We suppose the Utes should be happy to have a room after spending most of the season trying to find an offense that finished 86th in College Football, averaging 359.8 yards per game.
Starting quarterback Cam Rising never quite got his knee healthy enough to play leaving it on the shoulders of three Utah signal callers who simply were not ready to run the offense as efficiently as a team should to get to the Rose Bowl.
In many ways, they should be thankful for a trip to any bowl game because it was their defense that pulled them into the postseason after finishing fifth in the nation against the run (84.3 YPG) and 17th overall (308.6 YPG). According to current NCAA Football stats, the nation’s 27th-ranked rushing attack must find a way to get it done on the ground.
The news wasn’t all bad for Utah, or at least bettors with their money behind the Utes. For the seventh straight year, the Utes turned a profit against FBS teams with a 6-4-1 ATS record, adding to their overall record of 56-38-2 (+13.80 units) since 2016.
Departures & Injuries
This is the ugly part about this part of the season. Kids who think the grass is greener on the other side of the 50 take off for the transfer portal and coaches often leave their kids behind. Over 1,000 players have left their commitment in what can only be described as College Football’s version of free agency.
12 Utah Utes have entered their name including red-shirt junior Bryson Barnes who threw for 1,517 yards this season with 12 touchdowns and 9 picks.
In addition, QB Nate Johnson will also transfer after throwing for 499 yards this season and three touchdowns. Barnes will stay to play for Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. QB Mack Howard is also leaving the program, but Rising said he will be back in Salt Lake City next season. It all would make the heads of most bettors explode. We continue our Las Vegas Bowl betting lines analysis by turning our attention to the Northwestern Wildcats.
Wildcats May Have Extra Motivation
Some in the Salt Lake City media think a match-up with Northwestern is beneath them. That train of thought should go right up on David Braun’s bulletin board, which likely is more of a figure of speech than an actual board but the the message to Northwestern should be just as impactful. Like Utah, Northwestern Wildcats has its own set of hurdles to overcome.
A few weeks before practice would start this season, the school suspended the former head, Pat Fitzgerald, after an investigation into a hazing incident between Fitzgerald and a former player. Braun was named the interim head coach until November when he was officially named head coach after a win at Wisconsin. The team was supposed to finish dead last in the Big 10’s Western Division and instead finished second behind Iowa.
The team struggled for an identity for most of the season while causing bettors to stay away from their games after rotating wins and losses for the first 10 NCAAF games before putting together a three-game win streak to end the season. This is a program that won one game last season and three games in 2021.
They also had to deal with injuries to starting quarterback Ben Bryant forcing Brendan Sullivan to make four starts according to this season’s NCAA Football stats.
This is the first year that Northwestern has turned a profit for bettors (8-3 ATS) since 2021. It snapped a two-year run of 14 failed covers in their last 22 games. As a dog, the Wildcats were 6-3 ATS and 4-2 as a rod dog whether it was a true road game or on a neutral field as was the case when they played Iowa at Wrigley Field when they lost 10-7, but covered as a 5-point dog according to our historical College Football betting lines.
Departures & Injuries
Thankfully for the Wildcats, this will be the shortest paragraph because neither injuries nor the transfer portal will create problems for them or bettors before heading to Vegas.
Utes To Rely On Run Game
It’s too early to give an official selection on the Las Vegas Bowl early line, but we can say that if this number goes down to Utah -6.5, that may be the number to pull the trigger on.
No matter how much extra motivation the Wildcats may have, they’re going to have the most time they’ve had all season to right their offensive ship starting with a running game that features Ja’Quinden Jackson (742 yards rushing) and Jaylon Glover (513 yards). That duo will be difficult to stop no matter how full the bulletin board is.
The Utes are 4-1-1 ATS as a favorite and are now 10-5 ATS in that role over the last two seasons. Since 2008, the Utes are 4-3 ARS against the Big 10, but just 1-3 ATS since 2016. Northwestern is 3-4 ATS against the Pac-12 since 2005, but 2-1 ATS since 2015.
The Wildcats were 0-2 ATS against ranked opponents this season, and Utah was 3-2-1 ATS against unranked opponents. That does it for our early Las Vegas Bowl betting lines analysis, we’ll be back to monitor betting trends in this match-up as we get closer to kick-off.
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