2023 NFC East Betting Odds: Expensive Division Could Get Exposed
The “Popular Team Tax” Makes the NFC East Too Rich
NFC East Remains Too Popular To Bet On
Here’s a tip: the NFL odds are not indicative of the oddsmakers actual implied probability. They are set for the public. As such, expect popular teams like Dallas and New York (either one) to get shorter lines than teams no one cares about. The NFC East betting odds remain hard to get value out of even if Philadelphia and Dallas remain elite.
Philadelphia vs Dallas 
: Everyone Hates ‘em
Love the more hate them, both Philadelphia and Dallas are on top. Given the NFC East betting odds, Philly should win the division at -125 while Dallas is not too far behind at +175. But these teams share plenty of similarities and that goes beyond having the two most annoying fanbases. And an argument can be made that these odds are too wide.
For one, both teams have loaded rosters. Even with a tougher NFL schedule this year, Philadelphia and Dallas should be locks to make the playoffs (-550 and -230, respectively).
Everyone mentioned Philadelphia’s “stacked” team and never gave Jalen Hurts credit. We’re sick of hearing that but it’s true. Philadelphia lost its main running back, Miles Sanders, and a top safety. But the team is the favorite to win the conference at +325. It should finish atop the NFL conference standings again. Dallas has a ridiculously talented roster as well.
Say what you will about Dak Prescott at quarterback. We’re deaf from hearing people whine about his turnovers. But he’s still a career 97.8-passer rating type of QB. And he’s got weapons all around him and a defense that forced the most turnovers (33) in 2022.
Dallas always falls short in the end. But that’s after building up hype in the regular season. So it’s not crazy to think this NFL team can overtake Philadelphia only to fall flat in the Divisional Round.
Behind Schedule? NFC East Has a Tougher Path
Speaking of schedules, the NFC East benefited from an easy schedule in 2022. This is why Philadelphia breezed to a 14-3 record. Three of the four teams made the playoffs and even Washington, the runt of the litter, finished with a .500 record (8-8-1). Beating up on the AFC South and NFC North was a blast. Not this year.
The division goes against the AFC East and NFC West now. The former could be the toughest division in the NFL while the latter has two playoff teams from last year and the Super Bowl champion of two years ago. This has affected the NFC East betting odds, most notably in the Giants’ case.
New York finished 9-7-1 and made the Divisional Round last year. But now, the team is lined at -200 to not make the NFL playoffs. It is also at +750 to win the NFC East and is favored to finish third at +175 (like it did last year).
While the Giants improved on its roster, this team benefited from the easy schedule last year. They went 8-3 against non-division opponents including going 5-0 against the AFC. That’s not happening again against opponents like Buffalo, the Jets, and Miami.
Cheer For Washington, Come on!
No, we’re not advocating for Washington because it finally kicked Daniel Snyder out. It also has a silly nickname that is likely to be changed again. (Just bring back “Football Team” permanently). We want to cheer for Washington because of a few things.
The first is this team’s underdog status. The Commanders are at 12-1 to win the NFC East and +300 to make the playoffs. Secondly, Ron Rivera is one of the favorites to be fired first. Everyone loves Riverboat Ron! He tends to get NFL players to play better as the season goes on, hence why Washington salvaged last season. And lastly, it would be funny if Philadelphia and Dallas fail. To do that, Washington needs to be better than most NFL predictions.
Washington only went 2-3-1 against the division last year. But this team did end Philadelphia’s bid for a perfect season and it embarrassed Dallas in the final regular season game. As a middle finger to the NFC East elite, cheer on the Commanders.
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