Carolina Looks to Close Out New York at Home

Islanders vs Hurricanes Betting Heavily in Favor of a Series Closure

2 weeks ago 43 4 minutes readNHL Picks & Parlays

Carolina looks to close out New York at home — BRUCE BENNETT / GETTY IMAGES

Islanders vs Hurricanes
Stars Shine
Canes Concerns
Extra Rest
Islanders vs Hurricanes Prediction

The New York Islanders will try to stave off elimination for the second straight game when they square off against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference First Round at PNC Arena in Raleigh on Tuesday.

Despite blowing a one-goal, third-period advantage, New York rebounded for a dramatic 3-2 overtime victory on Mathew Barzal’s game-winner 84 seconds into the extra session Saturday. Barzal’s winner was his second of the game. Jean-Gabriel Pageau also scored and Semyon Varlamov made 42 saves for the Isles.

Seth Jarvis and Stefan Noesen each scored a power-play goal for Carolina, and Frederik Andersen stopped 32 shots. The Hurricanes still hold a 3-1 advantage in the best-of-7 series. They won both games in Raleigh in the series.

Here’s a glimpse at Game 5 if you’re interested in Islanders vs Hurricanes betting. Carolina is favored on the moneyline at -258 with the Islanders at +210. The total is set at 5.5 goals with a strong lean on the under at -120.

Islanders vs Hurricanes

Records: New York Islanders (40-30-16) at Carolina Hurricanes (55-23-8)
Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC
Day/Time: Tuesday, April 30, 7:30 p.m. ET
Streaming: TBS, MAX, MSG, Bally Sports South

Stars Shine on Long Island

The Islanders stars had been a non-factor in the series until Game 4. Barzal and linemate Bo Horvat had been held to just one point over the first three games. Plus, New York’s power play, which had scored at 20.4% during the regular season, only struck for one goal in its first five man-advantages in the series.

But with their season on the line, the Islanders’ major players broke out. Not only did Barzal score twice but Horvat also had two assists, including a secondary helper on Barzal’s winner.

Plus, Noah Dobson — the Isles’ second-unit PP quarterback who was second on the team with 70 points — set up Pageau’s second-period power-play goal. Dobson had zero points in the first three games but shot for a rebound, which Pageau buried, giving New York a 2-1 advantage.

The Isles’ stars may be late arriving to the series, but at least they made it before they were officially eliminated. We’ll see if New York’s best players can build on that breakout performance and again have an impact in Game 5.

Canes Concerns

Under head coach Rod Brind’Amour, the Hurricanes have been a dominant possession team, especially at 5-on-5. They are always among the top teams in Corsi-For percentage and Expected Goals percentage in both the regular season and postseason.

But Carolina hasn’t advanced to the Stanley Cup Final under Brind’Amour because its offense has fallen short each season. Despite dominant underlying numbers at 5-on-5 again, Carolina’s offensive woes are again becoming an issue.

Despite leading the playoff NHL team statistics in Corsi-For percentage (59.67), and sitting second in Expected Goals (10.34) at 5-on-5, Carolina and New York each have six 5-on-5 goals in the series. The Hurricanes also boast a 59.3% Scoring-Chances For and 53.75% High-Danger Scoring Chances-For mark but have the worst 5-on-5 shooting percentage (5.31%) in the NHL.

If not for Andersen, who boasts a .920 save percentage, and Carolina’s 4-for-14 (28.6%) power-play efficiency, this might be scary for Carolina. But luckily for them, the Canes are still thoroughly in control heading home up 3-1.

Extra Rest

The NHL playoff schedule is getting a little wonky. The teams will have an extra day off between Games 4 and 5, in addition to the extra 3-4 hours they had off due to the Saturday afternoon start time. The added rest should benefit both goalies, especially veteran New York netminder Semyon Varlamov, who has started nine of New York’s past 12 games and three of the four games in the series.

Varlamov has a .930 save percentage in the series and leads the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage (.970). The Islanders goalie, who just turned 36 on April 27, has surrendered just three goals at 5-on-5 in the series and boasts an otherworldly 5.41 goals-saved-above-average mark at 5-on-5 through four games.

Andersen has been no slouch either, sitting second in GSAA (1.82) and fourth in save percentage (.935) at 5-on-5 (1.82). The 34-year-old is well-rested due to his five-month hiatus due to blood clotting. But he could use the extra day off too since he may not be fully conditioned after so much time off.

The extra day could also benefit New York’s top-four defensemen, Dobson, Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and Alexander Romanov, since each is averaging 23-plus minutes of on-ice time in the series.

New York’s ironmen each sit in the top-25 in average on-ice time. Yet no Carolina players are over 23 minutes in average on-ice time in the series. Only defenseman Brent Burns sits in the top 25 in ATOI among playoff performers.

Brind’Amour is far more judicious with his line-rolling. Noesen is the only Hurricanes player averaging fewer than 10 minutes per game. Brind’Amour can afford to be lax with his bench management since his team has the series lead. In contrast, Isles coach Patrick Roy needs to manage a little more desperately.

Fresh goaltending could mean fewer goals, especially as the series tightens. This is something to keep in mind if you’re Islanders vs Hurricanes betting.

Islanders vs Hurricanes Prediction

The trends indicate this series could go deeper. Carolina and New York have been far more even than many would’ve predicted.

But if you are making NHL picks today, it’s hard to bet against Carolina on home ice, where it was 27-14 during the regular season and is 14-4 over the past three playoff years.

If you’re Islanders vs Hurricanes betting for Game 5, and think the series will end, the puck-line is worth a wager, especially with Roy — renowned for his early goalie-pulling — coaching on the other bench.