NHL Game One: Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars Preview
Avs Have Had Their Way With the Division Champs, Will Long Layoff Hurt?
The Colorado Avalanche (4-1) head to Big D to take on the Dallas Stars (4-3) in what many have predicted to be a long series. The Avs have been waiting for the Stars and Vegas Golden Knights winner for a week while Dallas has had just two days to prepare for their second-round opponent.
Our current NHL rankings have the Avalanche as the second-ranked team behind the New York Rangers while the Dallas Stars are seventh. The current odds to win the Stanley Cup have Dallas as the second choice at +500 while Colorado is fifth at +600. The Stars are a game one -120 favorite with a total of 6.5 (under -120). The puck is scheduled to drop from the American Airlines Center at 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT and can be seen on ESPN. Let’s get into our Avalanche vs Stars betting preview.
Avalanche vs Stars
Date, time:
Location: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone, Italy
How Much Does Experience Matter?
The Colorado Avalanche have been to the top of the mountain just a few short years ago when they beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games (2022) to win their third cup since moving to Denver in 1995. In the 29 seasons since moving the franchise from Quebec, Colorado has been in the postseason 20 times. The names have changed but the culture and expectations have been established.
The Avalanche have a massive advantage regarding big-game experience with 10 players winning a Stanley Cup with the Avs. Head Coach Jared Bednar talked yesterday at his presser about how the team who is mentally tough will win the Cup and that’s where experience plays a massive factor. Of the eight teams remaining only Brad Marchand has won a Stanley Cup with their current team.
Heading into game one the question for handicappers has to be, does Dallas have a different kind of experience advantage because they’re into a normal flow of games after going the distance against Vegas, the same way the Boston Bruins held down the Florida Panthers in game one after Florida waited for the B’s series against the Toronto Maple Leafs to end. We think that will play a major role in the game one NHL score.
Depth Is So Cliche But So Important
This is the time of year when we cringe a little because this is the time of year when keywords that make an analyst sound smart rear their head and the biggest word that’s used is depth. It’s a cool word in the way bettors or handicappers use value to make themselves sound as if there is a massive algorithm behind their pick, but the truth is, depth is everything and the Dallas Stars have plenty of it as we’ve documented throughout the postseason.
We won’t go through the numbers again but let’s say when you have two 25-goal scorers on the third line in former Avalanche forward Matt Duchene (25/40/65) and Tyler Seguin (25/27/52) you have some serious firepower. In total, the Stars have seven players with at least 20 goals this season playing in front of goaltender Jake Oettinger who has played his best hockey all season in the Vegas series winning four of the last five games with a 1.52 goal against and a .946 save percentage. That may trump experience in game one.
Bettors Divided In Game One
The game one opening number has not budged and that’s because the public is split down the middle with 50% of the wagers divided almost equally. There is a slight lean towards Colorado but most are electing to put the Avs on a parlay using the puckline (+1.5 -240).
We have talked about this in the previous column but when focusing on game one betting, we think the rest is overrated. The Stars can match and exceed the star power from Colorado and don’t overlook the fact that beating the defending champions allowed Pete DeBoer’s team to close the experience gap in just one series.
VGK showed what it took to beat the champs and we think that will pay off in game one against the Avs who have to find their intensity level after sitting idle for a week. That does it for our Avalanche vs. Stars game one preview, all the best to your NHL wagers tonight.
