NHL Mid-Season Report; Winning Teams To Stay Away From

This is always an interesting discussion that is had every year at this time, mostly because this is a period of reassessment for NHL bettors. The debate is how are we to attack games that involve teams with records over .500, or at least what the NHL calls .500, but are not worth a consistent moneyline wager because the price the public pays when such teams lose is too much over time to build a bankroll. There are a few teams that we want to spotlight as clubs you can bet on from time to time but not blindly. We start our NHL betting analysis midseason report with the biggest culprit or fraud, depending on how you want to classify it.

New Jersey Devils (24-20-3, 51 points) -7.31 units

Every bettor knows that the way the NHL keeps records is not helpful to the public. We always have to add overtime losses to the loss column to give us an accurate account of how good a team is. If we do that to the Devils’ record, we see them one game above .500 with 7.31 units lost.

They’re easily the most disappointing team in the NHL this season and it doesn’t look like that’s going to improve in the second half after dropping seven of their last 10 games. They finished the first half off with two measuring stick games at Carolina and Tampa Bay, dropping both games 3-2 and 6-3. In their last four games, New Jersey has allowed 20 goals.

The units lost are a reflection of the expectations for Lindy Ruff’s team who dropped early games as a -232 favorite against the Coyotes and Washington at a -225 favorite. Those early October losses were nothing compared to what they did on December 1st when the San Jose Sharks raced out to a 3-1 lead after two and then scored three times on seven shots in the third. The Devils were a -450 home favorite in that one. Only two other times since has New Jersey been a -200 favorite or better.

If we’re being fair, Jersey has had their share of players occupying the NHL injury report , which is likely why Lindy Ruff still has a job. The only way we’re going to consider betting the Devils with any kind of regularity is if they show consistency after they regain their health, but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen any time soon with only Erik Haula scheduled to be back soon after the break. We can anticipate second-half NHL betting odds to not reflect as much optimism as they did to begin the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs (25-14-7, 57 points) -5.79 units

If you’ve had your money on the Toronto Maple Leafs this NHL season there is a constant battle going on between knowing the Leafs are 25-21, indicating they win more than they lose but the price bettors are asked to pay, especially at home is silly at times.

With Toronto being a public team, we’re always going to see some inflation with Toronto but watching them drop two games as a -337 favorite and a -261 favorite against the Chicago Blackhawks this season has given us some pause when being asked to lay massive numbers. Just when the public starts to feel comfortable with Sheldon Keefe’s team, they lose to the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -203 favorite.

In our latest power ranking, we have Toronto at the 11th spot and that’s due to their 6-8 record against top 10 teams and 11-11 mark against the top 16. That’s where it gets tricky because those numbers indicate that we can’t bet Toronto against the better teams when the moneylines are bankroll-friendly, but we also don’t want to lay a massive number against the poorer teams in the league.

Our advice is to play Toronto on the road against the bottom half of the league, those are the spots where Toronto thrives.

Nashville Predators (26-23-2, 54 points) -2.78 units

If anyone can please explain what the identity of this team is we’re all ears. They’re the most frustrating team to put your money behind but they are the very definition of unreliability. This is a club that we’ve seen lose to the Arizona Coyotes and the Anaheim Ducks back-to-back at home and then beat the Dallas Stars twice on the road as a big underdog. Two of the Anaheim Ducks’ 18 wins are against Nashville.

To make them more frustrating, one of those losses to Anaheim was in between the sweep of Dallas. Nashville has lost five of six heading into the break and has given up 12 goals in their last three losses to Edmonton, Ottawa, and Los Angeles. Andrew Brunette has his work cut out for him in the second half but we think we’ll get an idea of their fate with games coming out of the break against Arizona and New Jersey, along with an important double revenge spot against the Stars.

Nashville has a decent top line with Filip Forsberg leading the way with 24 goals and 51 points, but outside of the top three, it’s difficult to find consistent scoring. We will pass early on the Preds at home (-2.78 units) but will consider certain plus-money spots on the road where they have found success (+1.62 units) for bettors this season.

In addition, the Tampa Bay Lightning (27-23, -0.23 units) might get some honorable mentions for first-half disappointments but we trust Jon Cooper’s team will peak at the right time as they usually do.

That does it for our NHL betting analysis midseason report, we would like to throw in a caveat that teams like the Florida Panthers, St. Louis Blues, and the Vancouver Canucks will continue to be teams that should conjure up confident NHL picks in the second half.

For NHL betting odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.