Oilers Can Close the Book on the Kings With Win

The Kings did just about everything right on Sunday night. They outshot the Oilers 33 to 13, only committed one penalty, and held Connor McDavid to just one shot on goal. But Stuart Skinner was incredible in his first NHL playoff shutout and Edmonton converted on its one power play (PP) opportunity. Now, the Oilers are heavy favorites for Game 5 on the Kings vs Oilers odds at -192 on the moneyline to win.

Now, Edmonton has a 3-1 series lead and the Los Angeles Kings officially have their backs against the wall for Game 5 back in Edmonton. Los Angeles needed to pepper Skinner with shots but also had to muck the game up and prevent the Oilers from getting out into open ice where they’re so dangerous. They limited Edmonton’s scoring chances and stayed out of the penalty box. The Kings did all they could and it still wasn’t enough.

Based on how this series had been doing, an NHL playoff score of 1-0 was not on anyone’s bingo card. Edmonton scored four or more goals in each of the first three games of the series so it says a lot about this team’s toughness and adaptability to win the kind of low-scoring, grind-it-out game that Game 4 turned into.

Frankly, if Skinner can be 80-90% as good on Wednesday as he was on Sunday, then the Kings just don’t have a chance.

LA Doesn’t Have Any More Tricks

The Kings are in a bind. They did as well as they could have done in terms of dominating 5-on-5 play and still weren’t able to get over the hump. Even the decision to go with backup goalie David Rittich instead of starter Cam Talbot worked out even though Rittich wasn’t tested too much.

The only hope Los Angeles has is that the Kings can somehow replicate that performance and get a little puck luck to score some goals against Skinner. The Kings vs Oilers odds, which have the Oilers as -190 moneyline favorites and as +160 on the puck line to win by two or more goals, don’t see that happening.

Los Angeles even achieved the near-impossible task of limiting the Oilers to a single power play. It’s extremely difficult to effectively defend Edmonton without committing a trip or hold here and there. However, the Kings did that with the caveat that they gave up a power play goal to Evan Bouchard on the one PP for the Oilers. That was extremely deflating given how Los Angeles was so good at even-strength all night.

One of the most important NHL stats from this series is that the Oilers are 8-for-15 on the power play and have gone a perfect 11-for-11 on the penalty kill. With that edge in special teams, Edmonton is close to unbeatable. Los Angeles needs to, once again, stay out of the sin bin in Game 5, play perfectly on the PK, and score with their man-advantages for once.

Skinner Has Been Awesome

It’s hard to overstate just how good Skinner was during Games 3 and 4, both on the road. He stopped 60 of the 61 shots he faced — good for a .984 save percentage — in Los Angeles to smother any hope the Kings had of getting a win in front of their home crowd. His improved play is a major reason why the Kings vs Oilers odds are so one-sided in favor of the Oilers.

It’s one thing to slow down Edmonton’s vaunted offensive attack, a hard feat for even the most sound defensive teams. To have to deal with that while also struggling to get anything past Skinner at the top of his game is a whole different animal. For so long, the lack of a competent NHL goalie has held the Oilers back. Now, it appears as if they do not have a competent goalie but one who can dominate a playoff game in his own right. That’s a very scary thought for not only the Kings but for the rest of the league as well.

Skinner might not stay as (nearly) perfect in Game 5 as he was in the last two games. Edmonton doesn’t need him to be, though, the Oilers just need him to be solid because their offense should be able to get going back at home.

Scoring Should Swing Back Toward Over

One of the best free NHL picks you can get right now is the over in Game 5. After the over hit in the first three games, the total went up to 6.5 goals before just one tally was scored in Game 4. Look for much more offense in Game 5 and for the 6.5 total to be blown past. Also, “over” is at even odds (+100) which is an awesome value.

Kings vs Oilers Lines

For NHL standings, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• NHL Playoffs: Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings Game 4 Odds Preview
• Game 4 Rangers vs Capitals Preview: Washington Trying to Stay Alive
• WC Game Four: Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche Odds Preview
• DeSmith, Canucks Look to Grab Commanding Lead over Predators
• Lightning the Home Dog as Panthers Go For the Kill