Rovanperä Favored Per 2024 Rally de Portugal Odds

Title Leaders Neuville and Evans are Longshots in Round 5

2 weeks ago 168 4 minutes readWRC News

2024 Rally de Portugal Odds: Kalle Rovanperä favored for second win — Photo taken from: motor24.pt

Favorites
Sleepers
Predictions

It’s been nearly a month since Sébastien Ogier won the Croatia Rally by a 9.7-second margin over Elfyn Evans. The Toyota drivers were well ahead of the rest of the field by the final stage but championship leader Thierry Neuville stayed on top by matching Evans’ point total. Neuville and Evans are in the mix of a title fight but neither driver tops the 2024 Rally de Portugal Odds this week.

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2024 Rally de Portugal Odds: Favorites

Kalle Rovanperä (-125)

The two-time defending champion is the heavy favorite this week in Portugal’s fast gravel stages. This marks his third rally event of the season following appearances in Sweden and Kenya. He had mixed results in each by finishing 39th in the former and first in the latter event. He’s pretty strong on gravel, though, and is rightfully a favorite this weekend.

Rovanperä’s won this event in each of the last two seasons. Last year wasn’t particularly close as he built a 54.7-second margin to second place by the end of the event.

He’s a threat to win every event he enters on the WRC schedule this year, but especially this week in Portugal.

Sébastien Ogier (+300)

Ogier’s win in Croatia makes it three top-two finishes in a row dating back to last season in Japan. He continues to snipe wins and top results from full-time competitors. He’s done this in the last two years since collecting his eighth title in 2021.

Portugal is a special place for Ogier. It was the sight of his first WRC win back in 2010. In the following years, he’s tied the record for wins at the event with five. His last win there came in 2017 and it’s been a mixed record ever since.

He retired from the rally race in 2018, finished third in 2019 and 2021, and managed 51st in 2022 which doesn’t inspire confidence. But this is one of the most decorated drivers in history when it comes to rally cars and he should be in the running for a win.

Ott Tänak (+500)

Tänak is slowly seeing Evans and his teammate Neuville run away with the title fight. The schedule’s less than halfway finished but Tänak is a distant fourth in the WRC standings with a 33-point deficit. He needs to finish in the top three for the first time this season to jumpstart his title campaign.

The Estonian won this event before back in his 2019 title-winning season. His most recent WRC win came on gravel in Chile last season.

It’s a big ask for him to turn things but Tänak arguably needs this more than any driver in the field this week.

Sleepers

Dani Sordo (+800)

Portugal marks Sordo’s first event of the season. The Spaniard is racing for Hyundai this week in place of Esapekka Lappi and it’s for a very good reason.

This is one of Sordo’s top events throughout his 20-year career. His last three Rally de Portugal events had him finish second (2021, 2023) and third (2022).

He’s never won the event but has come close so many times it’d be a surprise to see him outside the top three.

Elfyn Evans (+900)

Evans is a surprise at these rally odds. Even given his retirement at this event last season, he’s still having a solid season and won this event in 2021. He finished second in 2022 as well but it was a big gap from him to Rovanperä by the end of the event.

His winless start to the season is holding him back in the championship. He’s just six points behind Neuville despite finishing ahead of him in three out of four events this season. Before his win in 2021, he also finished on the podium in 2018. This is a stacked field this week with Rovanperä, Ogier, and Sordo ahead of him in odds with recent and historic success.

But Evans needs a strong showing in events like this if he wants to finally secure his first WRC title.

Thierry Neuville (+1100)

It’s interesting to see the championship leader this far down the odds order but not a surprise for Neuville. He’s managed just one top-three finish since his win in Monte Carlo to open the 2024 season. He’s raced well on Power Stages consistently to secure more points on that day (13) than anyone else in the WRC this season.

Neuville had a good run of form at this event but has dropped off in more recent years. He won in 2018 with second-place finishes in 2017 and 2019. But he’s finished fifth in each of the last two seasons and 36th in 2021. His podium in Croatia and the subsequent points haul are encouraging but history is not on his side this weekend.

Adrien Fourmaux (+7400)

Don’t look now but Fourmaux is third in the rally championship standings and ahead of multiple championship winners. His run of top-five finishes came to an end with 17th in Croatia. But he’s shown solid pace in the prior two events (Sweden and Kenya).

The Frenchman is having the best WRC season of his career. At least a podium here isn’t out of the question.

2024 Rally de Portugal Odds: Predictions

The 2024 season looks like it’ll be a close fight between two drivers who have combined for just one win this season in Neuville and Evans.

Neither have had the outright pace for much of the season but are the most consistent full-time drivers so far in 2024.

This week, the oddsmakers are right. Neither will stand on the top step as it’s tough to imagine anyone catching Rovanperä (-125) for victory. His incredible pace in Kenya was dominant enough to make this an easy prediction.

Ogier (+300) looks like the only one who could maybe catch him but that’d be tough unless he hits trouble. Look for Ogier and Sordo to fill out the top three spots.

For WRC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.