WRC Rallye Monte-Carlo Betting Tips: Can anyone catch Sébastien Ogier?

After just two months off, the World Rally Championship (WRC) starts a new season this week with the Rallye Monte-Carlo. The traditional first event of every WRC season will see some drivers on new teams as well as new drivers making their debuts. A new points system to de-emphasize power stages will also take some time for fans to get used to. But the drivers are ready to start the season, and here are some WRC Rallye Monte-Carlo Betting Tips.

WRC Rallye Monte-Carlo Betting Tips: Favorites for victory

• Sébastien Ogier (+100)

Ogier’s competing in select events in 2024, and it’s no surprise this is one of them. The eight-time WRC champion shines along the French Riviera; Ogier’s nine wins in this event are more than any other driver in WRC history. He’s won eight of the last 10 Rallye Monte-Carlo events. It’s hard to find a bet as certain in rally racing as backing Ogier in Monte-Carlo.

• Thierry Neuville (+250)

Neuville’s one of the only drivers to best Ogier in the last decade at this event. His victory by just 12.6 seconds in 2020 remains his only win in Monte-Carlo. He’s managed another four podium finishes at the event — including last season. His odds are this short, thanks to his proficiency on tarmac.

Eight of his 18 career wins in the WRC have come on tarmac or mixed-tarmac events like Monte-Carlo. Defending WRC champion Kalle Rovanperä is contesting a partial season in 2024. Can Neuville use this event to establish himself as one of the WRC+ leaders? It’s possible but challenging when facing Ogier.

• Elfyn Evans (+325)

Evans returns in 2024 as Toyota’s top full-time driver on the grid after a second-place campaign last season. Toyota’s run in the previous five years is some of the most dominant in current motorsports. The team won five consecutive WRC drivers’ championships and manufacturers’ titles in four of the five years.

There’s no reason to think the team will drop off anytime soon. Evans can use this opportunity to secure his first title. But a title campaign likely won’t start in Monte-Carlo, where he’s never won and only podiumed twice in 10 races.

• Ott Tänak (+850)

Tänak returns to Hyundai in 2024 after a season with M-Sport Ford. Like Evans, he’s never won in Monte-Carlo. His track record was rough at the event. Last year’s fifth-place result was the first time he finished the race since 2019, his title-winning season with Toyota.

He’s not as proficient on the tarmac as Neuville but has won in snow events, which will be useful this weekend. A Tänak victory would be a huge surprise in his return to Hyundai.

WRC Rallye Monte-Carlo Betting Tips: Podium favorites and sleepers

• Ogier (-345)

Ogier hasn’t finished outside the podium of a WRC race in Monte-Carlo since 2012. He’s the very likely winner, and a podium finish is nearly a certainty. Even if you’re bullish on another winner this weekend, it’s an easy bet to pick Ogier for a podium finish.

• Evans (-286)

Seeing Evans second in these WRC odds for a podium is surprising. He finished fourth last year after a 21st-place finish in 2022. Even with likely the best car and team behind him, he hasn’t broken through since consecutive podiums in 2020 and 2021. Without Rovanperä, he’ll have more opportunities like this to make the podium. It’s a safe but not certain bet.

• Neuville (-263)

Neuville, by contrast, feels much safer as a podium pick. He’s made the top three in four of the last five events in Monte-Carlo. He’s done it before and often to put himself in a great position to start the year, and 2024 could be the same. This will be crucial to bank points early and as often as possible.

• Tänak (-161)

The Finnish driver needs to buck the trend of poor results in Monte-Carlo ahead of the only pure-snow event of the WRC season in Sweden. He’ll be a more significant favorite for a top result there, so he can bank more points early on in the year. Given his track record in Monte-Carlo, it’s hard to bank him breaking through the top three.

• Andreas Mikkelsen (+450)

MIkkelsen’s a familiar face with Hyundai but hasn’t podiumed at a WRC event since 2019. You have to return to 2017 to find the last time Mikkelsen finished in the top three of a tarmac event. He’s a very, very long shot here and likely not worth it.

• Takamoto Katsuta (+450)

Katsuta’s a better podium spoiler pick. He managed a top-three finish once last year (Finland) and two the year before. One of those two came in the tarmac event in Japan, like the surfaces in Monte-Carlo. He’s racing with Toyota again in 2024 and could see more opportunities thanks to Ogier and Rovanperä racing part-time. But this would be a shock to start.

WRC Rallye Monte-Carlo Betting Tips: Predictions for this year’s race

It’s been 12 years since Ogier finished off the podium in Monte-Carlo. We like him to make it nine wins in 11 years this weekend and break his event record for wins. He’ll be joined on the podium by Neuville and Evans. At +140, that’s not too big of a payout, but it’s as close to a sure thing as it gets in the WRC for this event.

For WRC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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