Rally Finland Preview: Can Rovanperä finally win his home race?
The Finnish world champion leads the odds this week after a big win in Estonia
After a slow start to 2023, defending WRC champion Kalle Rovanperä’s won two of the last four events of the season to build a big gap at the top of the standings. This week, the WRC grid continues its stretch of European rounds with a stop in Finland. Known for its jumps and fast gravel roads, it’ll be challenging for the drivers. Here’s a Rally Finland Preview of what to look out for this weekend.
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Rovanperä massively favored on home soil
Rovanperä’s pulled away from the field in the middle portion of the WRC schedule. Second in Monte-Carlo preceded three consecutive fourth-place finishes in Sweden, Mexico, and Croatia. Since then, he hasn’t finished lower than third, with wins in Portugal and last time out in Estonia.
This week he leads the WRC odds at -200. Though he’s in good form lately, he’s never won his home rally in four attempts in the WRC. His best result’s second last season when he finished 6.8 seconds behind Ott Tänak. He did win the HYACenter Rally, a warmup rally racing event in Finland, by 11 seconds over Toyota teammate Elfyn Evans. Both drivers and the team feel confident in their setup for the official event this weekend.
Tänak is the closest challenger at +400. The Estonian rally racer has struggled lately since his last podium in Croatia. Fourth in Portugal preceded 35th in Italy. He bounced back to sixth in Kenya but fell down the order again to finish eighth in his home rally. But unlike Rovanperä, Finland’s been a successful stop on the calendar for Tänak.
He’s won four rallies in Finland: Rally Finland in 2018, 2019, and 2022 and the Arctic Rally in 2021. It’s one of the calendar’s best events, and he’ll be starting fourth in the order. He needs a win to get his season back on track with four events. A win here could catapult him back to second in the standings.
Hyundai’s Esapekka Lappi (+500) is third in odds for victory after yet another podium in Estonia. The Finnish driver’s in a great run over the last five events. Lappi’s finished second or third in four of the last five rallies. He’s won one WRC event in his career: the 2017 Rally Finland. If you’re looking for a surprise winner, we like Lappi in our Rally Finland Preview. This event is by far his best on the WRC schedule, and he’ll likely make his way to the podium again. He’s -208 to continue his run of podium finishes.
Longer WRC odds for victory at Rally Finland
Evans, who won three of the eight HYACenter Rally stages, is +1400 for victory this weekend. The Welsh driver sits second in the standings thanks to consistency. With the exception of his retirement in Portugal, he’s finished no lower than fifth in every event. His win in Croatia and two other podiums in Mexico and Kenya have him second to Rovanperä by 55 points. A win is a long shot, but he did enjoy that warmup rally and is -119 for a podium.
Thierry Neuville rounds out the biggest names in the WRC championship at +2700 for victory. Neuville finished second in Estonia to overcome the disqualification in Kenya. That makes it a podium in two of the last three events. He’s just three points behind Evans for second in the WRC standings, but he’s historically struggled in Finland.
He took fifth last season, his best result in the previous seven seasons. His best result was second in the 2013 Rally Finland. He’s an incredibly long shot but could be a surprise podium finisher at +175.
Rally Finland Preview predictions for the event
Rally Finland’s another gravel stop on the WRC’s run of six European WRC races in seven events. This is typically the fastest rally of the year and will be a specifically challenging event for co-drivers.
He doesn’t have the same momentum as he did in his title-winning campaign last season, but Rovanperä should break through this weekend. A win will all but seal his second straight WRC title with just four rounds left for anyone to catch him. It’ll be a crowning achievement for the series’ young star.
But if you’re looking for a bigger payout, Tänak is a great choice. He fell flat in his home race and could become the most successful non-Finnish driver in the event’s history with a win. We like a Rovanperä, Tänak, and Lappi podium for the event.
For WRC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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