WRC Rally Italia Sardegna: Ogier returns for one of his best rallies
Can Kalle Rovanperä overcome his track record in Italy?
It took five events, but defending WRC champion Kalle Rovanperä finally got his first win of 2023. The Finnish driver took a dominant win in Rally de Portugal by 54.7 seconds. That’s by far the most significant winning margin of the season.
That win pushes Rovanperä to the top of the WRC standings. He now holds a 17-point lead over Ott Tänak. It’s another 12 points back to Sébastien Ogier in third at 69 points. He’s tied with Elfyn Evans and one point ahead of Thierry Neuville.
This weekend the WRC heads to Italy for Rally Italia Sardegna. The third European event in a row and the third of nine on the WRC schedule features fast, narrow stages with high temperatures. Whose team will dive into the Olbia harbor to celebrate a win? Here’s your look at the WRC Rally Italia Sardegna odds.
Ogier, Rovanperä favorites for victory
Ogier returns to the fold after not racing in Portugal. The eight-time WRC champion raced well in Italy. He’s won four Rally Italia Sardegna events and another Italian WRC event with his Rally Monza win in 2020. But recent history has been mixed. He won the Italia Sardegna in 2021 but finished third in 2020, 41st in 2019, second in 2018, fifth in 2017, and third in 2016.
At +175, he’s favored for his third win of the season. He’s the only driver with multiple victories in 2023, with wins in Monaco and Mexico. Three wins would catch him up to Rovanperä in the WRC standings.
Rovanperä (+275) has never won a top WRC event in Italy. His lone win there came in WRC-2 Pro in 2019. The last four years have seen him struggle: ninth in 2019, DNF – retired in 2020, 25th in 2021 and fifth in 2022. Rovanperä is a risky pick for victory, given how Ogier and other drivers have driven at the event.
This week, Tänak (+400) rounds out the top three in WRC oddsWRC odds this week. Rally Italia Sardegna was the first WRC event he won back in 2017. He won the event again last year. But between those two victories, he’s failed to make the podium. In 2019, he finished fifth, the best mark between those wins.
A win this weekend would prove last year was not a fluke. Reports state the Estonian driver went through testing with teammate Pierre-Louis Loubet in Italy ahead of the rally this weekend. The extra time compared to Toyota and Hyundai’s racers could give him an advantage.
Other drivers to consider
Hyundai’s lead driver Thierry Neuville (+700), saw his streak of podiums drop off quickly. Thirty-third in Croatia and fifth in Portugal has him 30 points behind Rovanperä in the WRC standings. He finished 41st last year in the event but has a track record of success. Third in 2021, second in 2020, sixth in 2019, first in 2018, third in 2017, and a win in 2016 makes him one of the most consistent drivers in Sardegna. He could use a podium finish to put his 2023 campaign back on track.
Evans (+900) suffered his first retirement last time out in Portugal. That result ended his streak of top-five finishes, including a win in Croatia. He’s never won in Italy. He’s podiumed there once in nine events (2021). Last year he finished 40th. It’d be a big surprise to see him on the top step by Sunday.
WRC Rally Italia Sardegna podium odds
The odds for a top-three finish are closer than for a win. Ogier unsurprisingly leads the way at -200. Rovanperä (-143) and Tänak (-125) round out the favored podium. Neuville (+100) and Evans (+160) are the next-shortest odds.
Predictions for the WRC Rally Italia Sardegna
Ogier is back, and imagining another driver taking the top spot from him is complicated. Rovanperä has momentum, but he’ll be starting first this weekend at an event he’s struggled in.
A podium combination of Ogier, Tänak, and Neuville seems a solid choice for the sixth event on the WRC schedule. Ogier’s track record, Tänak’s extra testing, and Neuville’s consistency would make for a likely podium finish. That’d likely do more once again to shake up the WRC standings.
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