Championship leader Rovanperä tops WRC Rally Estonia Odds

The World Rally Championship’s passed the halfway mark of the 2023 season. Seven events are complete, with six remaining over three continents. Defending WRC champion Kalle Rovanperä’s pulled out a healthy lead at the top of the standings ahead of challengers Elfyn Evans, Sébastien Ogier, Ott Tänak, and Thierry Neuville. Rovanperä leads the WRC Rally Estonia odds as the grid returns to Europe from the Safari Rally Kenya.

Eight-time champion Ogier won his third event of 2023 last time out in Kenya. He’s the only WRC rally racer with multiple wins this season and has only raced in five events. He won’t be racing this weekend for Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT.

Rovanperä tops the standings with 140 points thanks to a trio of podiums in the last three events. A win in Portugal preceded third place in Italy and second in Kenya. Evans is second at 99 points ahead of Ogier and Tanak, who are tied at 98. Neuville’s fifth at 93 points.

The return to Europe sees the grid take on rural Estonia’s smooth, narrow forest roads. It’s the biggest motorsport event in the Baltic area. Here’s how the odds break down for the race this weekend.

Rovanperä, the runaway favorite

With Ogier out of the picture this weekend, Rovanperä leads the way for Toyota. The team won five of seven events this season (mostly behind Ogier) and are rolling as the schedule turns to fast gravel events. At -182, Rovanperä’s easily the shortest odds of the field.

He’s won this event twice in a row by a minute each time. The Finn has the right rally car and a great track history. Even starting first in the order this weekend won’t keep from being a serious threat to victory.

Surprisingly, Hyundai’s Esapekka Lappi is second in odds for victory at +550. He had his podium streak snapped in Kenya when he finished 12th. Before that, he finished third in Croatia and Portugal and second in Italy. If it wasn’t for the bad start to the season (eighth in Monte-Carlo and seventh in Sweden), he might be closer to the group bunched up for second in the standings.

Lappi hasn’t shined in Estonia before, with just a sixth- and seventh-place finish in 2022 and 2020, respectively. Though Ogier’s not racing, seeing him take victory would be a surprise. His odds for a podium finish (-250) seem more likely.

Tänak and Evans are tied in odds at +700. Tänak’s coming to his home rally racing at an inconsistent pace. He finished sixth last time out in Kenya after a 35th-place showing in Italy. Those results came after fourth in Portugal. It’s been an up-and-down year for the 2019 WRC champion.

His return to Ford has seen some highs, like the dominant win in Sweden, but also lows, like the poor results in Italy and Mexico (ninth). He needs a good result here to try to close the nearly two-event gap to Rovanperä at the top. He won this race in 2020 but hasn’t matched that pace since, with 31st in 2021 and third in 2022.

Evans sits second in the championship, thanks to his consistency. The Toyota driver may only have one win in 2023 in Croatia, but he’s finished in the top five in all but one race. His retirement in Portugal is the only major blemish on his season. He’s fresh off a podium in Kenya and took second in last year’s event. Rovanperä may be the heavy favorite, but Evans will likely be right there with him.

Longer odds for victory in Estonia

Neuville went from winning in Italy to being disqualified in Kenya. He has some of the longest WRC Rally Estonia odds at +2400 despite his relatively good track record there (fourth last year, third in 2021). Considering how much better other drivers are racing at the moment, it’ll be tough to see him winning here, but a surprise podium (+275) could be in the cards for the Belgian driver.

Predictions for Rally Estonia

After a rough start to 2023, Rovanperä’s in top form and is handily running away with the championship. This has been one of his better events in years past, so he’s the pick for victory here.

If you’re looking for a better payout for a winner, go with Evans. The WRC Rally Estonia odds don’t do him justice this week for how solid he’s been for Toyota. He’ll likely be in the mix for his second victory of the season as well. With Toyota set to bring an upgrade for Estonia, look for Lappi to fill out the podium.

For WRC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Kenya Rally 2023 Winners: Ogier holds on for victory from Rovanperä
• Betting On Rally Kenya: How WRC Odds Stack Up
• WRC Safari Rally Kenya Preview: Three Driver’s Lead Odds
• WRC Rally Italia Sardegna: Ogier returns for one of his best rallies
• WRC Rally Portugal 2023: Drivers look to get ahead of championship leader