CFL Odds Widely in Favor of Winnipeg Against Montreal
Thanks to a big upset in the Division Finals, the 110th Grey Cup features a lopsided meeting between Winnipeg and Montreal. The latter took down Toronto, the defending champions, and must now face a team that thoroughly dominated it in two regular season games. The 2023 Grey Cup odds have Winnipeg’s spread at -8.5 points or -400 on the moneyline. Unless Montreal can do it again, this could be the biggest Grey Cup ass-kicking since 2019.
CFL Division Finals Review: A Major Upset
As we foreshadowed, the CFL Division Finals featured one major upset: Montreal took down last season’s Grey Cup winners as 10-point underdogs. It was even more shocking in how the Alouettes did it, beating Toronto 38-17. The Als forced nine turnovers from the Argonauts, including four interceptions from Chad Kelly and four on downs.
With the upset, Montreal improved to 7-1 in its last eight games. Its defense has now held teams to 22 points or fewer in eight straight games. Six of these games went under the total on the CFL betting odds.
The other Divisional Final went as expected, with Winnipeg soundly defeating B.C. 24-13. However, the 24 points from Winnipeg is the fewest it has scored since its last loss six games ago versus Hamilton. This was also the first in nine games where the total went under for a Bombers game.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-4) vs Montreal Alouettes (13-7)
Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON (Neutral Field)
Streaming: Live Sports Stream
The Blue Bombers are short favorites per the 2023 Grey Cup odds. But this is something Winnipeg is used to. The Bombers are actually 7-5 against the spread (ATS) when favored by a touchdown or more. Two of these wins came against Montreal. Winnipeg won by an average of 22 points.
Winnipeg held Montreal’s offense to just a field a goal in both games. The two touchdowns Montreal scored in the second game were by way of interceptions. Still, Winnipeg won that game 47-17. This also marked the most points Montreal has given up and its biggest defeat this 2023.
But their last meeting was a long time ago – nearly three months ago. Montreal has gone 7-3 since and 3-0 ATS as an underdog since.
“It wasn’t really a surprise to me. I kind of had my picks of how I thought the whole playoff scenario would go, and I had Montreal winning it and going to the Grey Cup,” Winnipeg running back Brady Oliveira said. “That’s a great group, their defense is playing lights out, so that’s who’s gotten them this far. It’s gonna be a great, great test for us.”
Indeed, Montreal has not lost since September 15. The team has been on fire, particularly on defense. And against Winnipeg, Montreal has already successfully forced turnovers from quarterback Zach Collaros. In this Grey Cup, the difference may come down to this… and how well QB Cody Fajardo can overcome his past demons.
We Meet Again: Collaros vs Fajardo
Winnipeg and Montreal meet in the Grey Cup for the first time ever. But this is a familiar matchup between quarterbacks as Collaros and Fajardo meet again. The latter came up short against Winnipeg twice with his old CFL team, the Roughriders. They were within one touchdown on both losses.
But in both games against Winnipeg this regular season, the Bombers owned Fajardo and the Montreal offense. They were held to six points in total. Fajardo got sacked repeatedly and threw multiple interceptions, one in the red zone. On top of that, star running back William Stanback was neutralized.
On Winnipeg’s side, Collaros lit up the Als defense for six passing touchdowns despite three interceptions. Oliveira ran for 239 total yards.
These one-sided performances from the offenses is a big reason why the 2023 Grey Cup odds heavily favor Winnipeg here. And folks concur as they continue to shorten Winnipeg’s line on the sportsbook.