The 2024 Oscars nominations have been released, and there has been some movement in betting markets.
2024 Oscars odds have Oppenheimer and its cast and crew favored to win in many categories, but there has been some support for an upset.
It’s a night where the glitz and glamor of Hollywood embarks at the same place, and there is good money to be made by bettors.
Parlay Oppenheimer Locks
There is no such thing as a lock, especially in the film industry, where most things are subjective. However, Oppenheimer winning Best Picture, Christopher Nolan winning Best Director and Cillian Murphy winning Best Actor are good things.
There has been steady market movement for the blockbuster movie since markets opened, and the markets didn’t need to wait to see if they were nominated.
The latest entertainment news is that Oppenheimer is sure to win Best Picture. It’s currently paying -1000, which it was before nominations. However, it opened at -200, so it has been smashed since markets first opened.
It’s all but a one-movie race, and although The Holdovers, which saw movement from +1000 to +800, has attracted some interest, our Oscar predictions 2024 can’t see Oppenheimer losing Best Picture.
In the Best Director category, Nolan still has a stranglehold on the market. However, Academy favorite Martin Scorsese has been specked to beat him.
Scorsese’s Flowers of the Killer Moon was another lengthy epic movie. Although it was an excellent story brought to life by the Italian-American director, we think Oppenheimer was more visually brilliant.
The 2024 Oscars odds for Scorsese to win Best Director firmed from +1400 to +900, so it’s a significant move. Nolan drifted from -3500 to -2300, which is very short for this category, where there are industry favorites.
Murphy was -280 to win Best Actor, and he’s now -300. We expected money to come for him following his Golden Globes win.
Paul Giamatti is always on the outside looking in, but his odds firmed from +200 to +150 following his Oscar nomination.
Big Move for Stone
Emma Stone is an Academy favorite, and she has been hammered to win Best Actress.
The Oscars nominations date was January 24, and her odds were slashed for her role in Poor Things, which was a latecomer to the party.
Lily Gladstone was the firm -135 favorite for her role in Killers of the Flower Moon, but most of the money has come for Stone, who saw her odds move from +100 to -200.
That’s a massive move for the Academy Award winner. She won for La La Land, and she has always been an actress the Academy loves giving awards to, especially with fellow favorite Jennifer Lawrence making a wealth of terrible movies lately.
That leaves the door for Stone to reprise her role of Oscar winner, and her moves with the 2024 Oscars odds are too big to overlook.
Short Favorites for Supporting Cast
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) and Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer) are firm favorites to win Best Supporting Actress and Actor, respectively.
Randolph is currently trading at -2000, which was her pre-nomination price. She leads the likes of Danielle Brooks, Emily Blunt, Jodie Foster, and America Ferrera.
We would be surprised if she were beaten, so she’s worth including in selections.
Despite the odds, we’re not as confident with Downey Jr at -1200. We saw his odds move from -1000, but so did the odds of Ryan Gosling for his role as Ken in Barbie.
The odds moved to +600 after opening at +700, and he could be the only actor winning an award for Barbie.
Academy favorites Mark Ruffalo and Robert De Niro are also nominated, so it’s a tricky market for bettors.
Barbie Owning Best Song
Two songs from Barbie are set to battle it out for Best Song.
“What Was I Made For?” is the clear -500 favorite for Billie Eilish, but there has been support for “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt.
Ryan Gosling sang the song in the movie, which won at the Critics’ Choice Awards. That threw a spanner into the works in this betting category.
However, the Academy rarely cares what the Critics’ Choice Awards dishes out. Therefore, “What Was I Made For” should take it out.
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