Match of the Round of 16
Manchester United defeated Newcastle 2-0 in February’s 2022-23 EFL Cup final as Casemiro and Marcus Rashford scored two first-half goals. The Red Devils will face off vs. the Magpies once again in the EFL Cup round of 16. The two Champions League clubs have ambitions of making it back to the final but United are coming off a 3-0 Premier League loss to rivals Manchester City. Newcastle knocked out City in the third round of the EFL Cup and will feel confident they can advance here. For the most anticipated match of the round of 16, let’s check out the Man U vs Newcastle odds.
Since Newcastle’s change of ownership, this has been quite a competitive fixture. None of the last four meetings have finished with more than two goals. During that time, both teams have picked up a win and two matches have finished in draws. Most recently, Newcastle defeated Man U 2-0 back in April at St. James’ Park. Just over a month earlier, Manchester United took down the Magpies 2-0 in the 2022-2023 EFL Cup final.
United Outclassed in Manchester Derby
Manchester United went up against intracity rivals Manchester City in the Manchester Derby on Sunday at Old Trafford. City dominated and Erling Haaland got on the scoresheet twice in the visitors’ 3-0 win. He converted his spot kick after a controversial penalty call and scored a wide open header in the second half from a Bernardo Silva cross.
United simply couldn’t stop Haaland as he provided the assist for Phil Foden’s goal as well. City thoroughly outclassed United and it’s time for Erik ten Hag to go back to the drawing board. To be fair starting center back pairing Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane have missed the last few games on the EPL season schedule.
While Martinez isn’t expected to return yet, Varane was on the bench for Sunday’s loss and could suit up on Wednesday. United are also missing defenders Luke Shaw, Tyrell Malacia, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Meanwhile, Casemiro returned to training from an injury he picked up with Brazil but did not suit up for Sunday’s match.
Casemiro is Man United’s leading scorer, in all competitions this season, with four and could potentially play vs. Newcastle. Prior to Sunday’s loss, Manchester United had picked up three wins in a row, in all competitions. However, their performances have not been convincing recently.
All three of those wins came by a one-goal margin. Marcus Rashford has been especially disappointing for United this season, with just one goal after scoring 30 last season. Regardless, the Man U vs Newcastle odds price United as favorites for this one. United easily dispatched Crystal Palace 3-0 in the previous EFL Cup round.
Newcastle Dealing With Key Absences
Last week, Newcastle United received bad news in Sandro Tonali’s betting case. The Italian Football Federation handed Tonali, a midfielder, a 10-month suspension for placing bets on Milan and Brescia while playing for both teams. Eddie Howe already has an injury crisis on his hands as all of Alexander Isak, Sven Botman, Jacob Murphy, Elliot Anderson, and Harvey Barnes missed Saturday’s 2-2 draw vs. Wolves.
The Magpies legitimately didn’t have a single attacking player on the bench vs. Wolves. Punters are advised to be cautious with soccer betting on Newcastle until some of their key players return. Botman is the closest to returning but it looks like the rest will almost certainly miss out on Wednesday’s match.
Newcastle lacked some creativity in last week’s 1-0 loss to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. Still, Callum Wilson scored twice at the Molineux on Saturday and has been the Magpies’ most prolific scorer this season. In all competitions, the English international has averaged 1.2 goals per 90 minutes. It was Isak, though, who scored the game’s only goal when Newcastle defeated Man City in the EFL Cup third round.
Match Analysis & Odds
Despite Sunday’s loss, Manchester United are expected to bounce back. The Man U vs Newcastle odds price the Red Devils as +110 favorites. Even though Manchester City thoroughly outclassed United, Man U goalkeeper Andre Onana was stellar in the match. He seems to have finally turned the corner after a number of high-profile errors.
Still, it’s unclear where United will be getting their scoring from as their forwards haven’t scored in any of their last four games. Newcastle are dealing with an injury crisis, so it’s no surprise that they come in at +240 odds. Still, Callum Wilson, Anthony Gordon, Miguel Almiron, and Sean Longstaff have combined for 16 goals so far this season. The Magpies have also been the highest-scoring team in the Premier League up to this point, with 26 goals in 10 games. Both over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals are priced at -115 odds.
Bettors can take Manchester United pk, -0.5 at -120, while Newcastle pk, +0.5 shows -110 odds. A draw displays +230 odds in this one and the fixture would go straight to penalties. United is the favorite to qualify, overall, at -170 odds. Some may also fancy Newcastle to advance at +140 in this EFL Cup final rematch from last season.