Europa League Finals Odds & Preview: Sevilla Clash with Roma in Budapest
Champions League Football on the Line
Sevilla Clash with Roma in Budapest
Death, taxes and Sevilla making a run in the Europa League seem to be the three constants in life. Sevilla have won a record six Europa League trophies and can preserve their 100% record in the European finals by defeating AS Roma on Wednesday. Roma boss Jose Mourinho has been wildly successful in European competitions as well. He is, after all, the only coach to win the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League. He managed to win the Conference League last year in his first season in charge of Roma. With Sevilla and Roma needing to win to qualify for the Champions League next season, we’ll look closer at the Europa League Finals odds.
Sevilla vs. AS Roma
Date, time:
Location: Puskas Arena, Budapest, Hungary
Streaming: CBS Sports, Paramount+, TUDN
Head-to-Head
Sevilla and Roma have only met once previously in European competition, in the 2019-20 Europa League round of 16. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this fixture was played as a single-leg tie. Sevilla got a 2-0 win as current striker Youssef En-Nesyri scored the match’s second goal.
Sevilla went on to win the Europa League in 2020, defeating Inter Milan 3-2 in the final. When the Europa League schedule pits Sevilla against Italian teams, it has usually ended in victory for Sevilla. They’re unbeaten in their last six matches vs. Italian teams, with a 5-1-0 record in those matches.
Sevilla’s European Heritage
- Semifinal Result: 3-2 agg. W vs. Juventus
- Key Absences: D Marcos Acuna (Suspended)
In a season where Sevilla have had three managers and a hard time in La Liga, they’ve still managed to find European success. There seems to be something about Sevilla and the Europa League, which is almost unexplainable.
Finishing third in their Champions League group, Sevilla dropped to the Europa League playoff in February. There, Sevilla dispatched PSV 3-2 on aggregate. That set up a meeting with Turkish side Fenerbahce in the round of 16, which Sevilla won 2-1.
The biggest triumphs of Sevilla’s season came in the quarterfinal and semifinal of the Europa League. In the quarters, Sevilla trailed Manchester United 2-0 early on in the first leg. Then, they mounted a late comeback to return to Seville on level terms.
A rejuvenated Sevilla side, under new manager José Luis Mendilibar, managed to win the reverse fixture 3-0 as Youssef En-Nesyri scored a brace. In the semifinal, Sevilla were once again underdogs vs. Italian powerhouses Juventus. Still, Erik Lamela scored a 95th minute winner in extra time of the second leg to send Sevilla back to the final for the second time in four seasons.
In that match, left back Marcos Acuna got a red card, which will see him miss out on Wednesday’s final. Alex Telles could start at left back in the Argentine’s place.
This season, En-Nesyri leads Sevilla with 18 goals in all competitions. Vice-Captain Ivan Rakitic may be 35, but he’s still playing at a high level. The Croatian midfield legend leads Sevilla in assists this season with six. Sevilla have conceded more goals than they’ve scored in La Liga this season and are currently in 11th place. However, goalkeeper Yassine Bounou has proven himself to be a big game player.
Mourinho With 100% Record in European Finals
- Semifinal Result: 1-0 agg. W vs. Bayer Leverkusen
- Key Absences: D Marash Kumbulla (Out), D Leanoardo Spinazola (Doubtful), F Paulo Dybala (Doubtful)
Like Sevilla, Jose Mourinho has found great success in UEFA competitions. He’s won two Champions Leagues, two Europa Leagues, and a Conference League trophy.
The Portuguese manager has also always retained a European final. His Roma will try to keep the streak going on Wednesday, coming off a 2-1 loss to Fiorentina in Serie A. Mathematically, the highest Roma can finish in Serie A is in fifth place. So, they’ll need to win on Wednesday to clinch a berth in next season’s Champions League group stage.
Roma finished second in the Group C Europa League standings and knocked out four teams en route to the final. In the playoff, Mourinho’s men came back from 1-0 down in the first leg to take down RB Salzburg, 2-1.
Roma also shut out Real Sociedad over two legs and advanced to the quarterfinal without much problem. Like in the playoff, Roma fell 1-0 in the first leg of the quarterfinal to Feyenoord. Once again, the Giallorossi managed to come back and got a 4-2 aggregate victory. A single Eduardo Bove goal was enough to take down Bayer Leverkusen in the semifinal and see Roma through to the final.
After defeating Feyenoord in last year’s Europa Conference League final, Roma are going for back-to-back European trophies.
They’ve had another fine season under Mourinho, as the addition of Paulo Dybala has paid dividends. Unfortunately, Dybala is a doubt for Wednesday’s final with an ankle injury. With 16 goals in all competitions, Dybala is the only Roma player to reach double figures in goals this season.
It could be up to Tammy Abraham to lead the line, as Andrea Belotti and Stephan El Shaarawy are other options. Last year’s Conference League matchwinner, Nicolo Zaniolo, left the club in January but Roma aren’t short on talent.
Match Analysis and Odds
Roma are carrying some injuries into this match, and it’s Sevilla who are the favorites to lift the trophy on Wednesday night. Sevilla come in at -125 Europa League Finals odds, while AS Roma show -105 odds to win back-to-back European trophies. Either Sevilla or Mourinho’s perfect record in European finals will be shattered come Wednesday.
All of Sevilla’s previous European trophies have come in the Europa League/UEFA Cup. Roma have never won a Europa League though.
Both teams lost over the weekend, with this match of much higher importance. Sevilla took a lead vs. Real Madrid but fell 2-1. Roma also took the lead at Fiorentina, but the hosts mounted an impressive comeback.
This is certainly one that could go either way, as the oddsmakers price it as a pick’em. Sevilla come in at -125 odds to cover, while Roma pk shows -105 odds. Sevilla’s loss on Saturday broke a six-game unbeaten streak. Meanwhile, Roma have just one win in their last nine matches in all competitions and European tournaments.
As a result, Sevilla come into this match as +165 moneyline favorites. Mourinho’s Roma aren’t far behind, at +195 odds, but they haven’t won any of their last four games. They’ve struggled to score recently, with just four goals in their previous six matches.
During that same span, Sevilla have scored over a goal per game and have looked like the more dangerous team. Still, Roma have kept clean sheets in three of their last six games, and five of their eight Europa League knockout stage matches this season. A draw displays short +195 odds for the match, while both over and under two goals sit at -115 odds.
