Verstappen leads F1 Belgian GP odds ahead of summer break

After an entertaining Hungarian Grand Prix, the Formula 1 grid heads to Belgium for the final stop before the summer break. This weekend’s race is the third sprint race format of the year. Here’s how the weekend schedule looks.

For the first time this F1 season, the odds are available for both the sprint and the feature races. Though the F1 Belgian GP odds are expanded compared to prior sprint weekends, the same dominant combination remains at the top.

Verstappen favored once again

Max Verstappen lost out on pole position in Hungary by 0.003 seconds to Lewis Hamilton, but that meant little difference in the race. The F1 points leader was nearly untouchable and cruised to his seventh consecutive win, this time by 33 seconds over second-place Lando Norris.

Verstappen’s thrived in Belgium recently and won the event in 2022 and 2021. This year he’s the favorite to win both the sprint (-275) and feature (-350) races. There’s no reason to expect anything else. Arguably Red Bull’s biggest strength this season is its Drag Reduction System (DRS) advantage. This advantage will be even more pronounced at a high-speed track like Spa Francorchamps.

Sergio Pérez and Norris are tied for the next-best odds for victory in the sprint race at +1000. Pérez was fighting in the early laps of Austria for the sprint race win and could fight for it again at a track where he raced well.

Though Norris’ faced misfortunate at Spa Francorchamps in previous years, he’s in incredible form right now. Last week’s podium in Hungary shows that McLaren is one of the faster cars on merit. If rain takes away the DRS advantage Red Bull has, look for Norris to take advantage. A bit of bad luck for Verstappen could give him an opportunity.

Norris is second in odds for the feature race win at +1000. It’ll be more challenging for him to edge out Verstappen for a whole race duration instead of the sprint but it isn’t impossible. Another good result, in any case will continue his push up the F1 drivers standings.

Pérez and Hamilton are next and tied at +1200 for feature race victory. Pérez’s podium last week gives him confidence heading into one of his better tracks. Hamilton and Mercedes had single-lap pace but couldn’t translate that on race day in Hungary. But he’s one of the best wet-weather drivers on the grid. A flyer on the seven-time world champion may pay off.

F1 Belgian GP odds for sprint race podium and top six finishes

Oddsmakers like a repeat of last week for the sprint race podium, with Verstappen (-500), Norris (-135), and Pérez (-135) all favored to fill out the rostrum. Mercedes teammates Hamilton (+135) and Russell (+200) are next in odds. Look for either of the two drivers to break into the top three.

It’ll likely be mixed conditions with the rain forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Russell’s shown his acumen around Spa Francorchamps in the wet before when he qualified second in a backmarker Williams in 2021.

The top eight positions earn points for the sprint race. Odds for sprint race points are unavailable, but there are odds for the top six finishers. Unsurprisingly, Verstappen (-700), Norris (-500), Pérez (-500), Hamilton (-500), and Russell (-400) are favored to make the top six.

Other favorites include Norris’ teammate Oscar Piastri (-175), Fernando Alonso (-165), and Charles Leclerc (-165). Look for Carlos Sainz (+110) to break into that group. He raced well last time out in Belgium (first on the grid to third by the flag) and could excel again.

F1 Belgian GP odds for the feature race podium and points finishes

The feature race odds are very similar to the sprint race. Oddsmakers like Verstappen (-600), Norris (-150), and Pérez (-140) to fill the podium on Sunday. And again, Hamilton (+150) and Russell (+275) are next in F1 odds. Of the two, Hamilton may win out over a race distance as he has for much of 2023.

Oddsmakers like nine drivers for points finishes in Sunday’s race. Verstappen (-1000), Norris (-700), Pérez (-700), Hamilton (-600), Russell (-600), Piastri (-600), Leclerc (-400), Alonso (-400), and Sainz (-350) are the top choices. Lance Stroll has even odds to round out the likely top 10.

But multiple options could have a better payout. Spa Francorchamps is a power circuit and could suit Alex Albon (+125) and his Williams much more than Hungary did. This circuit is one of his best, as he’s never finished outside the top 10 in his Formula 1 career.

Esteban Ocon (+135) is also a great option here. He’s finished in the top 10 in all but one Belgian Grand Prix in his career. His only finish outside the points was as a rookie in 2016, driving one of the worst cars on the grid that season.

Predictions for the Belgian Grand Prix

The Belgian Grand Prix is one of the oldest F1 races on the calendar, featuring a classic, high-speed track. Weather will likely play a factor, as it often has throughout the last decade. The F1 Belgian GP odds point to another sweep by Verstappen and Red Bull, but we like Norris for the sprint race win.

This track will likely suit the McLaren more than Hungary and Norris has been on a tear lately. A sprint race win will give the team a lot of momentum heading into the summer break.

For podiums, we like a Norris, Verstappen, and Russell combination for the sprint race and a Verstappen, Norris, and Hamilton combination for the feature race. Sainz should break into the top six for the sprint race and look for both Albon and Ocon to bump some of the favorites out of the top 10. Ocon especially needs a strong result before the break after that first-lap retirement in Hungary.

For Formula 1 betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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