Mexico vs Panama: Gold Cup Final Odds
Panama in Running For First Major Trophy
First Time Final Matchup
Mexico have won four of the last seven CONCACAF Gold Cups and they can add another title to their trophy case on Sunday when they take on Panama. Mexico and Panama have never met in a Gold Cup final, making this a special occasion. Plus, Los Canaleros of Panama have never even won a major trophy. Either Panama will come away with their first Gold Cup, or Mexico will win a record ninth crown. So, history will be made either way. Let’s look at the 2023 Gold Cup Final odds from what should be an excellent match.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Final
Mexico vs Panama
Date, time:
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA, USA
Head-to-Head
If Mexico: This is the first time that Mexico and Panama are facing off on their CONCACAF Gold Cup schedules since 2015. That semifinal match went into extra time as two Andres Guardado penalties powered Mexico to a 2-1 win. El Tri went on to win the final vs. Jamaica that year, 3-1.
Notably, Mexico are unbeaten in their last 13 matches vs. Los Canaleros. The previous time Panama defeated Mexico was nearly ten years ago in the 2013 Gold Cup semifinal.
Panama also beat Mexico in the group stage earlier on in that tournament. Overall, Mexico and Panama have only met four times previously in the Gold Cup, and both teams have two wins apiece.
These sides also met in last month’s CONCACAF Nations League third-place play-off. Mexico’s Jesus Gallardo scored the match’s only goal in the fourth minute in a competitive match. Mexico head into this match with six wins in their last seven games vs. Panama in all competitions.
Mexico Faultless in Semis
- Semifinal Result: 3-0 W vs. Jamaica
- Group Stage Standings: 2-1, 1st Group B/2-1-0, 2nd Group A
- FIFA World Ranking: 14
It took Mexico just over 80 seconds to get on the scoresheet in the semifinal vs. Jamaica. Jesus Gallardo sent in a low cross which found Henry Martin. The striker scored his second goal of the tournament by calmly taking a touch and slotting home past Jamaica keeper Andre Blake. Less than 30 minutes later, Luis Chavez sent in a left footed free kick that Blake could do absolutely nothing about.
The goals demoralized Jamaica, who had been excellent in the tournament up to that point. Mexico cruised to a win as Roberto Alvarado added a third goal before the final whistle.
Mexico haven’t conceded a goal in two knockout stage matches and are firing on all cylinders. After a dark few months, El Tri are emerging for the better under interim coach Jaime Lozano.
Unsurprisingly, the Gold Cup Final odds price El Tri as favorites for Sunday’s match. They’ve scored at least twice in four of their five matches to this point and have outscored their opponents 12-2 in the Gold Cup. Not bad for a team who changed coaches in the lead up to the tournament.
Panama Upset USA
- Semifinal Result: 1-1 D vs. USA (5-4 W in PKs)
- Group Stage Standings: 2-1-0, 1st Group C
- FIFA World Ranking: 57
Panama’s run continued as they managed to defeat the USA in penalties on Wednesday night. In a match where both teams had chances, and Panama dominated possession in the first half, proceedings finished 0-0. In extra time, Panama struck first as substitute Ivan Anderson beat USA keeper Matt Turner to an Adalberto Carrasquilla through ball.
Anderson scored on an empty net but Jesus Ferreira equalized minutes later on an outrageous volley. So, for a second time in just four days, the USA went into a penalty shootout. This time, Matt Turner wasn’t able to save any penalties as Los Canaleros converted all of their shots. Cristian Roldan missed his penalty and it was only fitting that Carrasquilla scored the winner.
The midfielder has been one of the best CONCACAF Gold Cup players throughout the tournament. He helped Panama through to their first Gold Cup final since 2013. They’ve lost in both of their previous appearances in the final but have looked strong throughout the tournament.
When key wingback Michael Murillo went down with an injury in the group stage, Panama’s chances took a hit. Still, they responded by finishing first in the Group C Gold Cup 2023 standings with two wins and a draw.
In the quarterfinal, Panama made a statement by destroying invited guests Qatar 4-0. Now, they’re coming off their first Gold Cup win over the USA since the 2015 third-place game. Panama were +300 underdogs to advance to the final but overcame the odds.
Match Analysis & Odds
Panama have been steadily improving under coach Thomas Christensen and a shock Gold Cup win would be vindication for Los Canaleros. Just 57th in the latest FIFA World Rankings, Panama figure to enter the top 50 no matter the result here. Mexico, who are ranked 14th in the world, have been here many times before and will know what it takes to win.
Mexico hold an 8-2 record in Gold Cup finals heading into this one and the Gold Cup final odds price them as -170 favorites to win in normal time. Still, Panama can cause Mexico problems, especially with the width that their wingbacks provide. Mexico, who employ three midfielders like the USA, could get stretched out if they’re not disciplined defensively.
In any case, Mexico’s Jesus Gallardo blitzed Jamaica down the left flank on Wednesday and is one to watch for Sunday’s match too.
El Tri enter the match as one-goal favorites and show even odds to cover. Meanwhile, bettors can take Panama +1 at -130. Note that Panama have covered the spread vs. Costa Rica, the USA and Qatar this tournament, which are all teams that played at the World Cup.
Los Canaleros are also +550 moneyline underdogs and haven’t beaten Mexico in regulation for almost ten years. A draw sits at +270 odds and that’d mean a second straight extra time game for Panama.
Panama’s match vs. the USA was the first time all tournament they didn’t score twice or more. This is expected to be a low scoring affair as well, with under 2.5 goals at -160 odds. Panama will look to become just the fourth team to win the Gold Cup on Sunday after Mexico, the USA and Canada.
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